406 Providence Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 2005 6,534 sqft lot $171/sqft · 16% below area Est $373k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the highly sought-after Cornerstone subdivision! This charming & well maintained 3/2 home sits perfectly on a corner lot, offering extra curb appeal and a sense of privacy. Step inside to discover a bright open floor plan designed for modern life. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas makes it the perfect spot for hosting friends or enjoying quiet family evenings. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the additional bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. Located in the heart of Brandon, you're just minutes away from top-rated public and private schools, local dining, and shopping. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN DINING LIVING AREAS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TOP RATED PUBLIC SCHOOLS
• LOCAL DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-427 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,846 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.92%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,153
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -17.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Providence Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,805 (+0%)	12mo	$324,750	$180	86
503 Whistle Stop	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,004 (+11%)	7mo	$354,900	$177	49
256 Penny Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,044 (+13%)	12mo	$354,900	$174	44
159 Cornerstone Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,029 (+12%)	14mo	$385,500	$190	43
652 Prosperity Pl	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,006 (+11%)	10mo	$381,900	$190	42
659 Prosperity Pl	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,021 (+12%)	16mo	$376,000	$186	42
165 Cornerstone Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,020 (+12%)	10mo	$379,900	$188	40
402 Caboose Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,020 (+12%)	12mo	$349,000	$173	39
902 Capstone Cv	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,024 (+12%)	19mo	$389,700	$193	32
614 Wild Horse Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,068 (+15%)	24mo	$357,000	$173	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-69,581
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-61,214
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,277/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,349

Max offer price $233,580

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $309,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    price $309,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to the highly sought-after Cornerstone subdivision! This charming & well maintained 3/2 home sits perfectly on a corner lot, offering extra curb appeal and a sense of privacy. Step inside to discover a bright open floor plan designed for modern life. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas makes it the perfect spot for hosting friends or enjoying quiet family evenings. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the additional bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. Located in the heart of Brandon, you're just minutes away from top-rated public and private schools, local dining, and shopping. Schedule your private tour today!

17. 2025-12-18
    listed $324,900 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to the highly sought-after Cornerstone subdivision! This charming & well maintained 3/2 home sits perfectly on a corner lot, offering extra curb appeal and a sense of privacy. Step inside to discover a bright open floor plan designed for modern life. The seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas makes it the perfect spot for hosting friends or enjoying quiet family evenings. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the additional bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. Located in the heart of Brandon, you're just minutes away from top-rated public and private schools, local dining, and shopping. Schedule your private tour today!

18. 2021-10-08
    historical
19. 2016-05-09
    soldstatus
20. 2015-10-29
    listed $208,000
21. 2015-10-28
    historical
22. 2015-07-24
    listed $214,800
23. 2005-12-14
    soldstatus
24. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus
25. 2005-08-04
    listed $208,000
26. 2005-02-06
    listed $208,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,164/yr (+$97/mo · 91.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,277
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$10,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,614
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+48.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $309,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-18 Listed $324,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2016-05-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-10-29 Listed $208,000 MLSU
• 2015-10-28 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2015-07-24 Listed $214,800 MLSU
• 2005-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-13 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-08-04 Listed $208,000 MLSU
• 2005-02-06 Listed $208,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,277 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.