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4109 Lazy Lily Dr
D- Composite 36.21
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.9/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.8/30.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Schools +4.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.1/10.0
  • DSCR +0.2/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$275,023

4109 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX 78155
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $124/sqft · 10% below area Est $305k · 10% under $200/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Ready August 2026! The Fentress' two-story new construction design welcomes an open first floor layout perfect for hosting. Primary bedroom & laundry down + spacious loft upstairs.

Key facts

  • 4,791 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-553 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (29.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (28.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $195k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
  • Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $195,072 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.71%
Cap rate
3.88%
Cash-on-cash
-8.61%
DSCR
0.62
GRM
11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$304,805
List price
$275,023
Delta
-9.77%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4150 Bermuda Ln 0.10mi 4/2.5 2,218 (0%) 5mo $271,723 $123 91
4064 Bermuda Ln 0.16mi 4/2.5 2,218 (0%) 4mo $274,123 $124 89
4101 Bermuda Ln 0.13mi 4/3.0 2,331 (+5%) 1mo $280,025 $120 82
4065 Bermuda Ln 0.17mi 4/3.0 2,331 (+5%) 0mo $309,650 $133 81
4129 Bermuda Ln 0.12mi 4/3.0 2,079 (-6%) 3mo $285,368 $137 80
4142 Bermuda Ln 0.10mi 4/3.0 2,029 (-8%) 5mo $274,390 $135 75
4069 Bermuda Ln 0.16mi 4/3.0 2,029 (-8%) 4mo $268,230 $132 73
4141 Bermuda Ln 0.12mi 4/2.0 1,937 (-13%) 1mo $256,696 $133 70
349 Wild Creek Rd 0.13mi 5/3.0 (+1) 2,466 (+11%) 0mo $289,621 $117 68
4060 Paddock Trl 0.20mi 4/2.5 2,520 (+14%) 3mo $372,230 $148 65
336 Pacific Waters 0.66mi 4/2.5 1,987 (-10%) 2mo $213,000 $107 50
320 Pacific Waters 0.66mi 4/2.5 1,885 (-15%) 4mo $220,000 $117 41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-32.6%
Equity multiple
-0.06×
Total profit
$-81,479
Equity at exit
$41,007
10-year hold
IRR
-44.9%
Equity multiple
-0.60×
Total profit
$-123,190
Equity at exit
$23,779

Cash invested: $77,006 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
58 active · 23 under contract
Months of supply
15.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$333,495 ($165/sqft)
Median days on market
155 d
This list price
12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-16.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

Rents YoY
2.0%
Active inventory
1833
Price-to-rent
11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,960 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,442
Tax est. 1.5%
$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
Insurance
$115
HOA
$200
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$412
Net cashflow
$-553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,659
Max offer price $195,072
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-362 -5% $-457 +0% $-553 +5% $-648 +10% $-743
Rent -10% $-707 -5% $-630 +0% $-553 +5% $-475 +10% $-398
Rate -1.0pp $-414 -0.5pp $-483 base $-553 +0.5pp $-624 +1.0pp $-696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$68,756
Closing costs
$8,251
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 31 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4134 Wild Bloom Rd Seguin, TX 3.0 2.5 2300 $2,000 $0.87 77d 1 0.10mi
4044 Sun Meadow Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2601 $2,359 $0.91 139d 1 0.12mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1937 $1,995 $1.03 93d 1 0.12mi
165 Wild Creek Rd Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1497 $1,750 $1.17 0d 1 0.15mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,575 $1.05 0d 1 0.15mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,625 $1.09 97d 1 0.15mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,625 $1.09 87d 1 0.15mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 2218 $1,750 $0.79 0d 1 0.21mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2218 $1,850 $0.83 24d 1 0.21mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,576 $1.07 69d 1 0.45mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,510 $1.02 72d 1 0.45mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,773 $1.06 67d 1 0.53mi
3809 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,795 $0.96 24d 1 0.64mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,650 $0.88 24d 1 0.64mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,825 $0.97 106d 1 0.65mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,495 $1.01 56d 1 0.66mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,549 $1.05 93d 1 0.68mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,419 $0.96 76d 1 0.68mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,695 $1.02 56d 1 0.73mi
1035 Timber Elm Seguin, TX 4.0 4.0 2650 $4,500 $1.70 99d 1 1.24mi
160 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,990 $1.19 0d 1 1.32mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $1,755 $0.76 110d 1 1.37mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $1,821 $0.79 106d 1 1.37mi
2721 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $1,596 $0.84 24d 1 1.38mi
2721 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $1,530 $0.80 10d 1 1.38mi
227 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $2,149 $0.93 0d 1 1.39mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1910 $1,516 $0.79 79d 1 1.39mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,195 $1.15 84d 1 1.40mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,095 $1.10 0d 1 1.40mi
2700 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2229 $2,200 $0.99 70d 1 1.43mi
2717 San Martin Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,050 $1.07 139d 1 1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Association transfer fee applies
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeCommunity amenities include pool, clubhouse, and park/playground

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage
Utilities
Water and sewer provided by City of SeguinElectric service by GVECCity of Seguin garbage service
Home design
New construction by PulteStone and siding exteriorFront exposure faces north and eastLevel lot and level driveBathroom on first floorAccessible/adaptive home
Construction
Slab foundationComposition roofNew home (approximate age 0)
Exterior features
Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble pane windowsStreet paved with curbs, gutters and sidewalksStreetlights

Interior

Kitchen
Island kitchenMicrowaveStove/RangeDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms
Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closetBedroom 2: 11 x 12Bedroom 3: 11 x 12Bedroom 4: 14 x 12Master bedroom: 14 x 14
Flooring
CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroomMaster bath with shower only and single vanityMaster bath dimensions 9 x 8
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Open floor plan with high ceilingsLiving/dining room combinationIsland kitchenGame roomUtility room insideCable TV availableHigh-speed internetSmoke alarmSolid countertopsVent fan
Laundry & utility
Washer connectionDryer connectionUtility room inside (8 x 7)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $275,023 Active 127 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $275,023 Active 126 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $275,023 Active 125 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $275,023 Active 124 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $275,023 Active 123 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $275,023 Active 122 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $275,023 Active 121 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $275,023 Active 120 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $275,023 Active 119 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $275,023 Active 118 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $275,023 Active 117 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $275,023 Active 116 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $275,023 Active 115 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $275,023 Active 114 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    statusdays on market $275,023 Active 108 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 107 DOM
  17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 106 DOM
  18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 103 DOM
  19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 102 DOM
  20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 101 DOM
  21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 100 DOM
  22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $275,023 Price Change 99 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    pricestatus $275,023 Price Change 97 DOM
  24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $271,123 Active 97 DOM
  25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $271,123 Active 96 DOM
  26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $271,123 Active 95 DOM
  27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $271,123 Active 94 DOM
  28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $271,123 Active 93 DOM
  29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $271,123 Active 92 DOM
  30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $271,123 Active 91 DOM
  31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $271,123 Active 90 DOM
  32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $271,123 Active 89 DOM
  33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $271,123 Active 88 DOM
  34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $271,123 Active 87 DOM
  35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $271,123 Active 86 DOM
  36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $271,123 Active 85 DOM
  37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $271,123 Active 84 DOM
  38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $271,123 Active 83 DOM
  39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $271,123 Active 82 DOM
  40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $271,123 Active 81 DOM
  41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $271,123 Active 80 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $271,123 Active 78 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $271,123 Active 77 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $271,123 Active 76 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $271,123 Active 75 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $271,123 Active 72 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $271,123 Active 71 DOM
  48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $271,123 Active 70 DOM
  49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $271,123 Active 69 DOM
  50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $271,123 Active 67 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,515
− Mortgage interest
−$15,406
− Property taxes
−$4,125
− Insurance
−$1,375
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,881
− Management
−$1,881
− HOA
−$2,400
− Depreciation
−$8,001
Taxable loss
−$11,554
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,773
After-tax cash flow
$-3,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story new construction home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout and is well-maintained, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
  • Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters
F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro J H C- TX #378/1,662 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Navarro ISD
NCES district ID
4832160
Math proficiency
48% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$66,008
Composite
43.49/100
National rank
#2996
State rank
#166 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

Score
66/100
State rank
#592
US rank
#11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Seguin, TX
County
Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
55,600
Household income
$71,039
Rent vs Own
27.5% rent · 72.5% own
Severe rent burden
17% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
196,854 people
By 2030
220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040
268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050
316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075
434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100
520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 41%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin
Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing
+1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-6.2% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-18 Listed $271,123 LERA
  • 2026-05-08 Price Changed $271,123 Zillow
  • 2026-05-07 Listed $289,123 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…