416 Cascade St · Erie, PA 16507

$129,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1902 5,184 sqft lot $61/sqft · 10% above area Est $118k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great investment property near Bayfront and downtown waterfront area. First floor unit has 3 bedrooms and access to basement w/ laundry. LVP and hardwood flooring. First floor tenant was paying $900 up until end of lease in April of 2026. Second Floor unit has 2 bedrooms, laundry in unit and attic space that could be potential for 3rd bedroom. LVP flooring as recent update and new refrigerator. Both hot water tanks just replaced for each unit.

Key facts

• Attic space
• Downtown waterfront
• Access to basement

Tags

• BAYFRONT
• DOWNTOWN WATERFRONT
• ACCESS TO BASEMENT
• LAUNDRY IN UNIT
• ATTIC SPACE
• RECENT UPDATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Actual rent: $900 for the 3-bedroom unit; Actual rent: $875 for the 2-bedroom unit

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 total garage parking spaces (2-car garage); 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property (multi-family); Two levels / 2 stories
• Construction: Construction materials: See remarks
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven (units); Refrigerator (units); Dishwasher (in one unit)
• Bedrooms: 3-bedroom unit in basement; 2-bedroom unit on another level
• Bathrooms: One bathroom in the 3-bedroom unit; One bathroom in the 2-bedroom unit
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement tenant-use with access to laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (in both units indicated)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,431/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.48%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,451
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1038 W 4th St	0.08mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,036 (-4%)	23mo	$133,750	$66	65
1047 W 7th St	0.23mi	6/2.0	2,429 (+15%)	1mo	$155,000	$64	65
723 W 8th St	0.38mi	6/3.0	2,124 (+0%)	18mo	$70,000	$33	63
701-703 W 4th St	0.30mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,340 (+10%)	5mo	$90,000	$38	60
449 W 5th St	0.61mi	6/2.0	2,036 (-4%)	24mo	$120,500	$59	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $77,829
• Equity at exit: $67,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $174,210
• Equity at exit: $110,875

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,771/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,028	-5% $991	+0% $954	+5% $917	+10% $881
Rent	-10% $762	-5% $858	+0% $954	+5% $1,050	+10% $1,146
Rate	-1.0pp $1,020	-0.5pp $987	base $954	+0.5pp $921	+1.0pp $886

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$1,224
1× unit	2	1	$1,207
Total (2 units)			$2,431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $129,900 Active 447-char remark
2. 2023-07-09
   historical
3. 2017-04-03
   soldstatus $69,000
4. 2017-03-31
   soldstatus $69,000
5. 2017-02-07
   listed $73,000
6. 2015-03-02
   listed $67,500
7. 2014-02-07
   listed $81,500
8. 1997-11-24
   soldstatus $65,000
9. 1996-08-30
   soldstatus $35,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,771
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
• − Management: −$2,334
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $10,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,407
• After-tax cash flow: $9,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+262.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $129,900 GEBOR
• 2023-07-09 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2017-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-31 Sold (MLS) $69,000 GEBOR
• 2017-02-07 Listed $73,000 GEBOR
• 2015-03-02 Listed $67,500 GEBOR
• 2014-02-07 Listed $81,500 GEBOR
• 1997-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,771 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.