3837 Buckhead Dr · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 $158/sqft · 8% below area Est $328k · 8% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a home office/study on the opposite side of the garage. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered rear patio
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• COVERED REAR PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HOME OFFICE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,978 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,617
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -8.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3812 Arrowchop Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-1%)	4mo	$324,682	$173	66
3804 Arrowchop	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,156 (+14%)	8mo	$368,048	$171	64
3833 Arrowchop Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,156 (+14%)	7mo	$376,350	$175	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,540
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-78,686
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $261,378

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,095 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,095 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,095 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,095 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,095 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,095 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,095 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,095 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $309,095 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a home office/study on the opposite side of the garage. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $309,095 Zillow