3100 Turner Rd SE #204 · Salem, OR 97302-2017

$199,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $198k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Sought-after Paradise Island Park location, front deck overlooking the creek with mature tree canopy. 2-car carport with large storage shed. The kitchen has 2 new dishwashers and a new microwave. Large kitchen island and newer laminate countertops. Laminate hardwood flooring, hall bath jacuzzi tub—primary bedroom with his and hers closets.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• 2 car carport
• 2 new dishwashers

Tags

• MATURE TREE CANOPY
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• 2 NEW DISHWASHERS
• NEW MICROWAVE
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home make: Van Dyke; Serial number: 26JS6024D251; Park name: Paradise Island; Lot type: Common; No assessments/liens reported
• HOA & community: Located in Paradise Island adult mobile home park (adult park); Park rent covers water, sewer, garbage, and cable; Home warranty negotiable

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric water heater; Park rent includes water, sewer, garbage, and cable
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Front door described (building description); Exterior painted yellow; Lap siding style (vinyl siding)
• Construction: Built in 1970; Pier foundation; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered deck and deck overlooking the creek with mature tree canopy; Landscaped; Shed/outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Two new dishwashers; Electric range with microwave included; Large kitchen island; Newer laminate countertops; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate (laminate hardwood style)
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms on the main level; Hall bathroom includes a jacuzzi tub
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Forced air
• Interior features: Electric and pellet fireplace in the living room; High-speed communication available; Dining area (combination)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.00%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,532
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3100 Turner Rd SE #421	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,746 (+4%)	0mo	$260,000	$149	87
3100 Turner Rd SE #308	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	13mo	$255,000	$157	84
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-7%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	83
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-7%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	82
3340 Turner Rd SE	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	3mo	$128,000	$79	73
3100 Turner Rd SE #182	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-11%)	13mo	$175,000	$118	70
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	70
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	67
3236 Turner Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-14%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	54
3474 Turner Rd SE	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (-11%)	6mo	$144,600	$97	50
3570 Turner Rd SE	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-14%)	10mo	$94,900	$66	48
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #332	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-15%)	10mo	$98,000	$69	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $62,510
• Equity at exit: $89,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $168,456
• Equity at exit: $138,244

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97302-2017

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,038/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	43d	1	1.06mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	13d	1	1.18mi
2315 Strong Heights Ln SE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1087	$1,850	$1.70	43d	1	1.25mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	13d	26	1.27mi
3955 Outward Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,824	$1.88	13d	20	1.41mi
2087 Audubon Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1325	$3,725	$2.81	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 341-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $199,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$897/yr (+$75/mo · 86.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,038
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $4,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $6,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $199,500 WVMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,038 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.