9 Moultrie Creek Cir #9 · St. Augustine South, FL 32086

$190,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,078 sqft · Townhouse · 87 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition 871 sqft lot $176/sqft · 17% below area Est $229k · 17% under $295/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to effortless Florida living! Nestled under the oaks in the charming Moultrie Woods community, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom townhome offers 1,078 sq. ft. of comfortable space and unbeatable everyday convenience. Say goodbye to weekend chores—the active HOA handles all exterior maintenance, landscaping, water, cable, and pest control, leaving you more time to relax by the community pool or explore the city. Enjoy a short walk to Treaty Park, hop on I-95 in under 5 minutes, or take a quick 15-minute drive to the heart of Historic Downtown and the beautiful beaches of St. Augustine.

Key facts

• Upgraded mechanicals
• Community pool
• $295 HOA

Tags

• MOULTRIE WOODS COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SHORT WALK TO TREATY PARK
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• UPGRADED MECHANICALS
• GRAY LUXURY VINYL TILE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.1% in St. Augustine South — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 20% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 407 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,266 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,257
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Moultrie Creek Cir	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,078 (0%)	11mo	$180,000	$167	90
6 Moultrie Creek Cir	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,078 (0%)	14mo	$172,400	$160	86
85 Moultrie Creek Cir	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,078 (0%)	13mo	$175,000	$162	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-48,271
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-73,808
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$295
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $158,266

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-154	+0% $-219	+5% $-285	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-289	+0% $-219	+5% $-150	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-171	base $-219	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Moultrie Creek Cir Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	1078	$1,350	$1.25	23d	1	0.04mi
10 Moultrie Creek Cir Unit 1 St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	1078	$1,700	$1.58	26d	1	0.05mi
150 Silver Fern Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,900	$1.40	24d	1	0.24mi
159 Beach Palm Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1354	$1,800	$1.33	20d	1	0.47mi
97 Ayamonte Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,775	$1.36	19d	1	0.97mi
890 Poinsettia Rd Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,590	$1.54	26d	1	1.09mi
3884 Osprey Cir Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,250	$1.58	26d	1	1.38mi
3884 Osprey Cir Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,250	$1.58	20d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $295 · $3,540/yr
• Likely covers: watercablelandscapingexterior maint.pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $195,000 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Welcome home to effortless Florida living! Nestled under the oaks in the charming Moultrie Woods community, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom townhome offers 1,078 sq. ft. of comfortable space and unbeatable everyday convenience. Say goodbye to weekend chores—the active HOA handles all exterior maintenance, landscaping, water, cable, and pest control, leaving you more time to relax by the community pool or explore the city. Enjoy a short walk to Treaty Park, hop on I-95 in under 5 minutes, or take a quick 15-minute drive to the heart of Historic Downtown and the beautiful beaches of St. Augustine.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$3,540
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom townhome in Moultrie Woods is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and can prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and can prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine South

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $195,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®