633 Molina Loop · Chula Vista, TX 78852

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1980 0.64 ac lot Est $95k · 27% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

Key facts

• New construction
• 0.63 acre lot
• Spacious parcel

Tags

• 0.63 ACRE LOT
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SPACIOUS PARCEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.5% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eagle Pass ISD (town): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #774 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Maverick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maverick County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.70%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,316
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
552 Chula Vista Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+5%)	14mo	$100,000	$94	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $10,235
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $36,832
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78852

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,677/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 Farm to Market Road 2030 Unit 4 Eagle Pass, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $70,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $70,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,000 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,000 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,000 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,000 Active 166 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    price $74,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

19. 2026-04-16
    status Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

20. 2026-04-16
    price $78,000 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

21. 2026-02-12
    price $83,900 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

22. 2026-01-07
    price $88,350 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

23. 2025-12-05
    listed $93,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    New listing outside City limits, in Chula Vista Subdivision! Attention investors and builders! This home needs full renovation or could be a great tear down opportunity. SOLD AS IS. The real value is in the 0.63 +_ of an acre lot, offering endless possibilities for new construction, expansion, or long-term investment. Properties with this kind of land size don't come around often. Don't miss your chance to transform this spacious parcel into a high-value asset. Agents please refer to agent remarks for more information.

24. 2007-04-23
    soldstatus
25. 2005-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,677 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,677 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,677
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$760
• After-tax cash flow: $3,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817730
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,967
• Composite: 17.48/100
• National rank: #9057
• State rank: #774 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chula Vista

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chula Vista, TX
• County: Maverick County · 57,434 people
• Metro: Eagle Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,434
• Household income: $49,954
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 822.0

Population outlook (Maverick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,919 people
• By 2030: 65,440 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,229 · +11.6%
• By 2050: 74,218 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 80,765 · +28.4%
• By 2100: 76,268 · +21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 53% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 11% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Maverick

• 2024 margin: R (+18.5) · D 40.5% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -75.5pp toward R · 2008: 57.0pp · 2024: -18.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.5 2020: D+9.4 2016: D+55.8 2012: D+58.0 2008: D+57.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.62%
• Current HPI: 172.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eagle Pass, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $74,000 EPBOR
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — EPBOR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $78,000 EPBOR
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $83,900 EPBOR
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $88,350 EPBOR
• 2025-12-05 Listed $93,000 EPBOR
• 2007-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,677 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.