55 Aspen St · Clarence, NY 14001

$53,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 925 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $58/sqft · 25% below area Est $72k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained manufactured home offering modern comfort and low-maintenance living. This home features a spacious open floor plan with a bright living area, a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a dining space perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Enjoy stylish finishes throughout including a fireplace, a jacuzzi bathtub and plenty of storage space behind the attached garage. Under-trailer spray foam insulation for efficiency and comfort. Situated in a desirable 55+ community, this move-in ready home is ideal for those seeking affordability without sacrificing quality. Don’t miss your opportunity to make this home your own!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($926 rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 1.3% in Clarence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ledgeview Elementary School (math 70% / reading 82%, grade A, #285 of 2,108 statewide, top 14%, 473 students, 10% FRL); Clarence Middle School (math 47% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 729 statewide, top 22%, 972 students, 18% FRL); Clarence Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,284 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $50,666 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.55%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,000
• List price: $53,900
• Delta: -24.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Quarry Hill Ests	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+8%)	1mo	$72,000	$72	75
181 Quarry Hl	0.15mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	11mo	$38,900	$40	72
110 Quarry Hl	0.19mi	2/1.5	980 (+6%)	14mo	$12,500	$13	70
182 Quarry Hill Ests	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	10mo	$77,000	$73	54
—	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	22mo	$60,000	$57	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $14,150
• Equity at exit: $8,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $41,828
• Equity at exit: $4,660

Cash invested: $15,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14001

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$67 /mo · $808/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $53,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $378	+0% $359	+5% $340	+10% $322
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $323	+0% $359	+5% $396	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $373	base $359	+0.5pp $345	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,475
• Closing costs: $1,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $53,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,400 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,400 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,400 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,400 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,400 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $54,400 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $54,900 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained manufactured home offering modern comfort and low-maintenance living. This home features a spacious open floor plan with a bright living area, a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry, and a dining space perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Enjoy stylish finishes throughout including a fireplace, a jacuzzi bathtub and plenty of storage space behind the attached garage. Under-trailer spray foam insulation for efficiency and comfort. Situated in a desirable 55+ community, this move-in ready home is ideal for those seeking affordability without sacrificing quality. Don’t miss your opportunity to make this home your own!

17. 2025-10-24
    historical
18. 2025-09-18
    price $53,500
19. 2025-08-19
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,019
• − Property taxes: −$808
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$889
• − Management: −$889
• − Depreciation: −$1,568
• Taxable income: $3,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $3,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home offers modern comfort and low-maintenance living in a desirable 55+ community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,312
• Population (ZIP): 9,122

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 322.1897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $53,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS