4000 N Indianhead Rd · Citrus Hills, FL 34442

$297,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,895 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $400k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you want privacy and mature trees, don't miss your chance to live in this roomy pool home. Split floor plan, vaulte4d ceilings, fireplace between great room and dining room. Access the screened pool from the greatroom or master bedroom. 3 car garage has been converted into an office and 1 car garage. Easy access to Crystal River, Inverness, Ocala and Suncoast Parkway.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1999
• Listed 14 days

Tags

• CITRUS HILLS LOCATION
• FAIRVIEW ESTATES SUBDIVISION
• POOL
• AZALEA LINED DRIVEWAY
• WHITE ROSE COVERED TRELLIS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($762/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Citrus Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#744 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 448 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,421/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $297k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,096 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $399,845
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4250 N Indianhead Rd	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,967 (+4%)	4mo	$398,000	$202	72
4130 N Indianhead Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,007 (+6%)	13mo	$275,000	$137	62
4428 N Aztec Pt	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (-6%)	1mo	$368,600	$207	54
1185 E Getty Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-3%)	11mo	$355,000	$193	54
1751 E Tradewind Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (-2%)	13mo	$385,500	$207	53
4353 N Indianhead Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-5%)	2mo	$385,000	$215	52
918 E Whitecloud Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-5%)	8mo	$380,000	$211	50
4070 N Forest Lake Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-5%)	11mo	$450,000	$250	49
4070 N Forest Lake Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-5%)	11mo	$450,000	$250	49
3535 N Indianhead Rd	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,959 (+3%)	8mo	$430,000	$219	46
4357 N Indianhead Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,781 (-6%)	8mo	$405,000	$227	46
1255 E Rockefeller Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,693 (-11%)	3mo	$334,900	$198	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,171
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-33,615
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,014/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $297,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $148	+0% $63	+5% $-21	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-32	+0% $63	+5% $159	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $139	base $63	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5135 N Western Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,825	$1.21	22d	1	1.15mi
3723 N Chandler Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,400	$1.39	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $297,000 Active
2. 2014-12-05
   soldstatus $105,000 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   If you want privacy and mature trees, don't miss your chance to live in this roomy pool home. Split floor plan, vaulte4d ceilings, fireplace between great room and dining room. Access the screened pool from the greatroom or master bedroom. 3 car garage has been converted into an office and 1 car garage. Easy access to Crystal River, Inverness, Ocala and Suncoast Parkway.

3. 2014-08-01
   listed $104,900 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   If you want privacy and mature trees, don't miss your chance to live in this roomy pool home. Split floor plan, vaulte4d ceilings, fireplace between great room and dining room. Access the screened pool from the greatroom or master bedroom. 3 car garage has been converted into an office and 1 car garage. Easy access to Crystal River, Inverness, Ocala and Suncoast Parkway.

4. 2014-06-16
   historical
5. 2013-03-08
   listed $149,900
6. 2009-11-30
   soldstatus $156,000
7. 2009-11-19
   soldstatus $156,000
8. 2009-09-14
   listed $159,500
9. 2001-03-05
   soldstatus $152,000
10. 2001-03-02
    soldstatus $152,000
11. 2000-03-07
    listed $159,900
12. 1989-06-01
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,014 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,014
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$4,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $1,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #744
• US rank: #16030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Hills, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+858.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $297,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-12-05 Sold (MLS) $105,000 RACC
• 2014-08-01 Listed $104,900 RACC
• 2014-06-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-08 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-19 Sold (MLS) $156,000 RACC
• 2009-09-14 Listed $159,500 RACC
• 2001-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-02 Sold (MLS) $152,000 RACC
• 2000-03-07 Listed $159,900 RACC
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,014 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.