920 Copacabana Dr · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$799,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1998 0.59 ac lot $340/sqft · 18% above area Est $676k · 18% over $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Row 3 stunner overlooks the three lots that total 0.58-acres and convey with this property in the desirable Copacabana by the Sea neighborhood. With its multiple south-facing decks, this is the perfect spot to soak in the sunshine, listen to waves crashing on the beach, and enjoy the Gulf breeze. Inside, this fully-furnished property is designed to entertain a crowd with its 4 king bedroom - 2 with en-suite bathrooms - and a fifth bedroom with two sets of custom, built-in queen-over-queen bunkbeds. Together, the house comfortably sleeps 16. In 2023, it was extensively remodeled with updates that include all new appliances, LVP flooring throughout, updated bathrooms, and interior paint. In 2024, the property received a new roof, AC condenser, deck railings, outdoor shower, and new windows in multiple locations. And now the exterior is gleaming after a fresh coat of paint in November 2025. Schedule your showing today to see for yourself!

Key facts

• All new appliances
• Updated bathrooms
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• MULTIPLE SOUTH FACING DECKS
• FULLY FURNISHED PROPERTY
• EXTENSIVELY REMODELED
• ALL NEW APPLIANCES
• LVP FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $727k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 770 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $727,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.32%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $675,941
• List price: $799,000
• Delta: 18.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
907 S Cv	0.08mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,496 (+6%)	20mo	$710,000	$284	60
914 Driftwood Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (-2%)	11mo	$729,999	$315	53
2930 Tropicana	0.26mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,574 (+9%)	15mo	$1,385,000	$538	47
3228 Gulf Castle Dr	0.48mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,628 (+12%)	7mo	$1,100,000	$419	37
2789 Tradewind Ln	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,024 (-14%)	23mo	$879,000	$434	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,663
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $164,109
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$655 /mo · $7,861/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,088
• Net cashflow: $2,001

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,409

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,453	-5% $2,227	+0% $2,001	+5% $1,775	+10% $1,549
Rent	-10% $1,216	-5% $1,608	+0% $2,001	+5% $2,394	+10% $2,787
Rate	-1.0pp $2,404	-0.5pp $2,204	base $2,001	+0.5pp $1,794	+1.0pp $1,584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 S Cove Dr Unit 1223255P Crystal Beach, TX	6.0	3.0	2497	$9,942	$3.98	22d	1	0.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $799,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $799,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $799,000 954-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    This Row 3 stunner overlooks the three lots that total 0.58-acres and convey with this property in the desirable Copacabana by the Sea neighborhood. With its multiple south-facing decks, this is the perfect spot to soak in the sunshine, listen to waves crashing on the beach, and enjoy the Gulf breeze. Inside, this fully-furnished property is designed to entertain a crowd with its 4 king bedroom - 2 with en-suite bathrooms - and a fifth bedroom with two sets of custom, built-in queen-over-queen bunkbeds. Together, the house comfortably sleeps 16. In 2023, it was extensively remodeled with updates that include all new appliances, LVP flooring throughout, updated bathrooms, and interior paint. In 2024, the property received a new roof, AC condenser, deck railings, outdoor shower, and new windows in multiple locations. And now the exterior is gleaming after a fresh coat of paint in November 2025. Schedule your showing today to see for yourself!

15. 2026-02-22
    listed $839,900 Active 954-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    This Row 3 stunner overlooks the three lots that total 0.58-acres and convey with this property in the desirable Copacabana by the Sea neighborhood. With its multiple south-facing decks, this is the perfect spot to soak in the sunshine, listen to waves crashing on the beach, and enjoy the Gulf breeze. Inside, this fully-furnished property is designed to entertain a crowd with its 4 king bedroom - 2 with en-suite bathrooms - and a fifth bedroom with two sets of custom, built-in queen-over-queen bunkbeds. Together, the house comfortably sleeps 16. In 2023, it was extensively remodeled with updates that include all new appliances, LVP flooring throughout, updated bathrooms, and interior paint. In 2024, the property received a new roof, AC condenser, deck railings, outdoor shower, and new windows in multiple locations. And now the exterior is gleaming after a fresh coat of paint in November 2025. Schedule your showing today to see for yourself!

16. 2025-10-14
    historical
17. 2025-06-13
    listed $839,900 Active
18. 2025-02-28
    historical
19. 2025-01-08
    listed $850,000 Active
20. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus
21. 2022-05-11
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-04-13
    status Pending
23. 2022-03-31
    status Pending, Continue to Show
24. 2022-02-24
    price $700,000
25. 2022-02-22
    listed $750,000 Active
26. 2020-08-31
    historical
27. 2020-02-07
    listed $500,000 Active
28. 2008-05-08
    historical
29. 2008-04-28
    soldstatus
30. 2007-11-08
    listed $449,000
31. 1998-06-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,861 · $655/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,622 · $1,218/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,761/yr (+$563/mo · 86.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $119,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$7,861
• − Insurance: −$12,023
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,544
• − Management: −$9,544
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $12,260
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,942
• After-tax cash flow: $21,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $799,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $839,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $839,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $850,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Price Changed $700,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-22 Listed $750,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-02-07 Listed $500,000 HARMLS
• 2008-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-08 Listed $449,000 HARMLS
• 1998-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,861 · -23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.