602 E Stinson · Freer, TX 78357

$135,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,174 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1965 0.77 ac lot Est $254k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One side of home 3/2 with living room, kitchen, one car garage, built in gun cabinet, large bedrooms with walk in closets, one full bath and master is shower Second living is 2/1 with kitchen and built in shelving, carport and utility Both share large living room, terrazo tile, fireplace (needs inspection) each home has central air and heat

Key facts

• 0.77 acre lot
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Freer ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Norman M Thomas El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 374 students, 80% FRL); Lucy Aragon J H (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 190 students, 83% FRL); Freer H S (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 170 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $924 of equity ($933 loan paydown + $-9 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Carle	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,466 (+9%)	2mo	$279,000	$80	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,219
• Equity at exit: $39,155

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $29,924
• Equity at exit: $47,031

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78357

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $159	+0% $112	+5% $66	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $57	+0% $112	+5% $168	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $147	base $112	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$193
• After-tax cash flow: $1,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,849
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6910
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Freer

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #12210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,726

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,826 people
• By 2030: 10,531 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 10,015 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 9,560 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 8,442 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 6,686 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 39% White 23%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 41% German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.8) · D 44.9% · R 54.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -60.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.4pp · 2024: -9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.8 2020: D+2.6 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+54.2 2008: D+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Current HPI: 98.4455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B