1911 Big River Ranch Rd · Heartland, TX 75114

$205,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Land · 26 Days on market

Built 2025 4,948 sqft lot $147/sqft · 5% above area Est $196k · 5% over $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR Classic Collection at Eastland Kitson Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Eastland subdivision, Kaufman County
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee (includes maintenance of grounds, management fees, and full use of facilities)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with two covered spaces and garage faces front; Garage approximately 20' wide by 18' deep
• Security: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: MUD water and MUD sewer; Concrete curbs and sidewalks; Municipal Utility District; Rain/freeze sensors; Low-flow commode
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; New construction (2025, incomplete)
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2025 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Landscaped yard with sprinkler system; Subdivision location; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Water line to refrigerator; Natural stone/granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, linen closet, and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet and other flooring types
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and natural gas compatible); Central air conditioning (electric); ENERGY STAR qualified HVAC equipment; Energy-efficient thermostat
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island and breakfast bar; Granite counters; Built-in features and built-in cabinets; Pantry and walk-in closet(s); Decorative lighting; Cable TV and high-speed internet available; Tankless water heater; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,863 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.78%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,788
• List price: $205,999
• Delta: 8.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,820
• Equity at exit: $30,715

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,116
• Equity at exit: $17,811

Cash invested: $57,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $205,999

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,500
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	0.02mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	43d	1	0.09mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	0.13mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,765	$1.45	5d	1	0.23mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	1d	1	0.27mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	43d	1	0.27mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	24d	1	0.27mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	2d	1	0.29mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	2d	1	0.33mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	43d	1	0.34mi
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,242	$1.39	1d	1	0.35mi
3072 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.40mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	24d	1	0.42mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	2d	1	0.45mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	43d	1	0.46mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	0.56mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.58mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	0.60mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.61mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	43d	1	0.62mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.64mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.64mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	43d	1	0.64mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.65mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	0.66mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	43d	1	0.70mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	43d	1	0.76mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	43d	1	0.76mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,850	$1.46	15d	1	0.77mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	2d	1	0.81mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	1d	1	0.81mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	24d	1	0.81mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	43d	1	0.81mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	24d	1	0.83mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	0.89mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	43d	1	0.92mi
2127 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	43d	1	0.93mi
4152 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,925	$1.52	24d	1	0.94mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	43d	1	0.96mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	1d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $205,999 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,999 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,999 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,999 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,999 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,999 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,999 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $205,999 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,999 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,999 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    price $205,999 419-char remark
13. 2026-05-10
    price $207,999 419-char remark
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $211,999 Active 419-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,770 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,855/yr (+$155/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable loss: −$1,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$290
• After-tax cash flow: $2,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $205,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.