1873 Sue Meadow Ln · Lakeside, FL 32068

$343,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Land · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Explore the Drayton floorplan--an inviting, open-concept home with a craftsman-style exterior offering serene water views. Designed with comfort and functionality in mind, this home offers 4 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the main living areas, creating a smooth transition from the gathering room to the covered lanai--ideal for enjoying indoor-outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen features elegant quartz countertops, 42-inch white upper cabinets, a white tile backsplash, and a complete set of Whirlpool appliances, including a range, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator. The owner's suite provides a rela

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($62); Community park

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water-smart landscaping and low-flow fixtures
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Sprinklers in front and rear; Pond on the property; City street frontage with asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Smart home features including smart thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $343k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-747 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,351 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.33%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-102,328
• Equity at exit: $51,142

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-146,961
• Equity at exit: $29,656

Cash invested: $96,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$429 /mo · $5,145/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,079

Max offer price $234,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-510	-5% $-628	+0% $-747	+5% $-865	+10% $-984
Rent	-10% $-915	-5% $-831	+0% $-747	+5% $-663	+10% $-578
Rate	-1.0pp $-574	-0.5pp $-660	base $-747	+0.5pp $-836	+1.0pp $-926

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,750
• Closing costs: $10,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1752 Glen Laurel Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.14mi
3255 Hammock Cove Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	24d	1	0.26mi
1559 Irishwood Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,800	$1.24	20d	1	0.34mi
1648 Glen Laurel Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,250	$1.03	24d	1	0.35mi
2718 Pinewood Blvd N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,739	$1.59	4d	1	0.39mi
2942 Biloxi Trl Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,846	$1.05	8d	1	0.70mi
1809 Dartmouth Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,750	$1.03	24d	1	0.71mi
2995 Biloxi Trl Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,750	$1.23	5d	1	0.82mi
3214 Isabella Ct Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.5	1956	$2,300	$1.18	5d	1	0.83mi
3214 Isabella Ct Unit 3214 Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.5	1967	$2,300	$1.17	24d	1	0.83mi
3214 Isabella Ct Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.5	1956	$2,300	$1.18	4d	1	0.83mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	4d	1	0.87mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 3296 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,050	$1.20	24d	1	0.87mi
3296 Isabella Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	5d	1	0.87mi
1608 Twin Oak Dr W Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,845	$1.45	3d	1	0.93mi
2796 Kiowa Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,915	$1.50	3d	1	0.96mi
3223 Merganzer Trl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,755	$1.52	24d	1	1.05mi
25 Knight Boxx Rd Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$1,863	$1.68	3d	18	1.15mi
2804 Canyon Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,824	$1.33	15d	1	1.16mi
3248 Dowitcher Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	24d	1	1.19mi
1504 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,795	$1.34	21d	1	1.20mi
1338 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,905	$1.44	20d	1	1.20mi
3533 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,899	$1.00	8d	1	1.35mi
3437 Talisman Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,779	$1.37	11d	1	1.39mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	21d	1	1.43mi
2034 Belhaven Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	2009	$2,450	$1.22	24d	1	1.46mi
2897 Gatling Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,650	$1.23	8d	1	1.46mi
1281 Independence Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,695	$1.56	24d	1	1.47mi
3424 Steelgate Ct Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,150	$1.01	5d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $343,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,213
• − Property taxes: −$5,145
• − Insurance: −$1,715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$9,978
• Taxable loss: −$15,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has a good resale value due to its well-maintained exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $343,000 realMLS