1130 Arkay Dr · Rockwood, VA 23236

$299,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,937 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 0.61 ac lot Est $391k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick ranch in ideal location. Ready for Reno!! Lake Crystal Farms/Hylton Park area, just off of Courthouse Road. Close to Powhite Pkwy, all the shopping on Midlothian Tpk. Great neighborhood, large lot. Wood floors through out most of the home. Floor plan is already somewhat open, a little ahead of its time! This home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($11/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Rockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in VA, #2,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Providence Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 640 students, 80% FRL); Providence Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 1,068 students, 79% FRL); Monacan High (math 49% / reading 86%, grade B, #183 of 319 statewide, top 58%, 1,631 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 26% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $299k implies a 378% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,121 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,274
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1718 Celia Cres	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,982 (+2%)	5mo	$400,000	$202	70
807 Sun Valley Way	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (-1%)	8mo	$430,000	$224	69
10204 Stonecrest Rd	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,995 (+3%)	4mo	$365,000	$183	68
1501 Hybla Rd	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,044 (+6%)	4mo	$450,000	$220	65
1949 Castle Glen Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,907 (-2%)	2mo	$480,000	$252	63
10125 Saint Joan Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-12%)	3mo	$325,000	$191	62
10417 Melissa Mill Rd	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,970 (+2%)	5mo	$373,000	$189	58
811 Clearlake Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,100 (+8%)	7mo	$335,000	$160	56
1331 Burlington Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,839 (-5%)	3mo	$390,000	$212	56
1615 Winters Hill Cir	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,992 (+3%)	7mo	$385,000	$193	55
1918 Castle Glen Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,087 (+8%)	5mo	$425,000	$204	49
9800 S Wagstaff Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,141 (+10%)	8mo	$410,000	$191	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,471
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-32,379
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23236

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,105/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,470

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $86	+0% $1	+5% $-84	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-97	+0% $1	+5% $99	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $77	base $1	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10200 Stroud Ln North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	0.76mi
10200 Stroud Ln North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	5d	1	0.76mi
718 Bella Way North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,995	$1.20	3d	1	1.11mi
8742 Shadymist Dr Unit N Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-21
    historical $299,000
11. 1981-06-29
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,105 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,105 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,105
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $1,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rockwood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #2803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,903
• Household income: $110,499
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 419.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.45%
• Current HPI: 284.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+378.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $299,000 CVRMLS
• 1981-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,105 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.