4834 N Carla Vista Dr · Prescott Valley, AZ 86314

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1992 8,712 sqft lot Est $304k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs cleanout and new flooring. SOLD AS-IS NO EXCEPTIONS! Great potential! 2 car det garage! This is an FHA reverse mortgage product whose sale is promulgated by Federal Law (24 CFR 206.125)It is a HUD home that CANNOT be sold for less than the current AS IS appraised value (which is the listed price)as established by an FHA Roster Appraiser. There can be no Repairs to the property, no home warranty, no SellerAssistance, no seller paid inspections, and no seller paid utilities

Key facts

• Shed
• Double wide
• Carport

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE
• CARPORT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 447 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $199k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,923 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,744
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8800 E Westward Way	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$172,500	$128	80
9151 E Manley Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$360,000	$250	73
8829 E Jamie Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+10%)	12mo	$339,000	$229	65
8868 E Jamie Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (+5%)	19mo	$295,000	$210	65
8512 E Tracy Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-1%)	15mo	$299,000	$226	60
4801 N Glenrosa Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-14%)	8mo	$245,000	$212	57
8867 E Roadrunner Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-12%)	20mo	$285,000	$240	54
4301 N Romero Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-4%)	19mo	$269,000	$207	50
4400 N Outrider Ct	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (-5%)	21mo	$310,000	$244	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,151
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,939
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86314

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $322	+0% $266	+5% $209	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $192	+0% $266	+5% $339	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $316	base $266	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4734 N Ocotillo Dr Unit 1 Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,915	$1.53	14d	1	0.30mi
4621 N Ocotillo Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	992	$1,875	$1.89	14d	1	0.31mi
4500 N Carla Vista Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	44d	1	0.36mi
8960 E Volcano Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1207	$2,000	$1.66	44d	1	0.46mi
9100 E Lakeshore Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.5	1223	$1,595	$1.30	44d	1	0.51mi
4860 N Sauter Dr E Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	0.60mi
4713 N Harlequin Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	911	$1,375	$1.51	21d	1	0.74mi
9766 E Lakeshore Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,850	$1.37	44d	1	0.76mi
9794 E Lakeshore Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,350	$1.18	14d	1	0.78mi
9800 E Lakeshore Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,595	$1.43	14d	1	0.80mi
9800 E Lakeshore Dr Unit 2 Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1311	$1,795	$1.37	44d	1	0.80mi
8135 E Ashley Dr Apt A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	44d	1	0.87mi
4400 N Phillip Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	999	$1,550	$1.55	44d	1	0.88mi
8094 E Jacque Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	21d	1	0.89mi
5431 N Western Blvd Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,175	$1.34	44d	1	0.95mi
9665 E Magma Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	21d	1	0.96mi
9751 E Magma Dr Apt A Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,675	$1.23	21d	1	0.98mi
4483 N Miner Rd Unit 2 Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,845	$1.48	14d	1	1.05mi
4348 N Sauter Dr W Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	21d	1	1.06mi
4357 N Miner Rd Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	44d	1	1.08mi
8503 E Leigh Dr Unit 3 Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1414	$2,195	$1.55	44d	1	1.09mi
7939 Spouse Dr Apt 1 Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	1.11mi
3866 E Teri Ct Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	14d	1	1.15mi
8396 E Stevens Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$2,000	$2.11	44d	1	1.19mi
8396 E Stevens Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	44d	1	1.19mi
3850 E Teri Ct #1 Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,000	$1.38	44d	1	1.19mi
8049 E Long Mesa Dr Unit 1 Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,745	$1.43	14d	1	1.24mi
7781 Spouse Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,350	$1.48	21d	1	1.25mi
8132 E Lakeshore Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	890	$1,400	$1.57	44d	1	1.46mi
8411 E Sommer Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2012-11-20
   soldstatus $45,000 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Needs cleanout and new flooring. SOLD AS-IS NO EXCEPTIONS! Great potential! 2 car det garage! This is an FHA reverse mortgage product whose sale is promulgated by Federal Law (24 CFR 206.125)It is a HUD home that CANNOT be sold for less than the current AS IS appraised value (which is the listed price)as established by an FHA Roster Appraiser. There can be no Repairs to the property, no home warranty, no SellerAssistance, no seller paid inspections, and no seller paid utilities

4. 2004-07-14
   soldstatus $94,900 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL WELL KEPT HOME, 2 CAR GARAGE ON ITS OWN ELEC. PANEL AND WIRED FOR 220, REFRIG. IS 2 YRS OLD, NEWER RANGE/OVEN DISHWASHER, STORM WINDOWS, NEWER LIGHT FIXTURES, DOG IS CRATED FNCD BKYD, TO SHO CALL OWNER, LV MSG AND SHOW! 2 Car,Detached,Carport,Garage,RV

5. 2004-07-14
   soldstatus $94,900

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL WELL KEPT HOME, 2 CAR GARAGE ON ITS OWN ELEC. PANEL AND WIRED FOR 220, REFRIG. IS 2 YRS OLD, NEWER RANGE/OVEN DISHWASHER, STORM WINDOWS, NEWER LIGHT FIXTURES, DOG IS CRATED FNCD BKYD, TO SHO CALL OWNER, LV MSG AND SHOW! 2 Car,Detached,Carport,Garage,RV

6. 2002-01-16
   soldstatus $85,000
7. 1999-08-30
   soldstatus $71,500
8. 1999-08-30
   soldstatus $71,500
9. 1993-07-09
   soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$297/yr (+$25/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $3,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humboldt Unified District (4469)
• NCES district ID: 0403870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,326
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6605
• State rank: #94 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Prescott Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #16160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott Valley, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 63,155
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,317
• Household income: $69,208
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1236.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.27%
• Current HPI: 370.04
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+246.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $199,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-20 Sold (MLS) $45,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 2004-07-14 Sold (MLS) $94,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 1999-08-30 Sold (MLS) $71,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,016 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.