1245 Robinson Rd · Counce, TN 38326

$189,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1980 0.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is nearby of the shores of Pickwick Landing State Park, this well maintained single-level home offers a lot of privacy.  Updates: HVAC system installed in 2021, while a newly renovated main bathroom with a step-in shower. The water heater (2021), refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making this home move-in ready. Ideal for those seeking a peaceful forever home or investors interested in a rewarding vacation rental, the property’s prime location places you minutes from Pickwick’s most desirable attractions. From renowned fishing spots and bustling marinas to golf courses, everything you love about the area is within easy reach. Additional features include a spacious 2-car carport, 2 generous storage sheds. USDA 100% financing-eligible area. Some phots have been virtually staged to show furniture placement Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• 0.95 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.95-acre lot; Lot dimensions approximately 225M x 175M x 150M x 190M; Above-grade living area documented by appraiser

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Carport for 2 vehicles; Total of 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residential; One-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage structure; Level and private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dryer (appliance present); Washer (appliance present)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.5% in Counce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hardin County (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pickwick Southside School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 197 students, 0% FRL); Hardin County High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 996 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $190k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $91,127
• Equity at exit: $133,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $247,572
• Equity at exit: $256,799

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38326

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,415

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $408	+0% $355	+5% $301	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $281	+0% $355	+5% $428	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $403	base $355	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,500 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,500 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,500 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $189,500 Active 1019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    This home is nearby of the shores of Pickwick Landing State Park, this well maintained single-level home offers a lot of privacy.  Updates: HVAC system installed in 2021, while a newly renovated main bathroom with a step-in shower. The water heater (2021), refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making this home move-in ready. Ideal for those seeking a peaceful forever home or investors interested in a rewarding vacation rental, the property’s prime location places you minutes from Pickwick’s most desirable attractions. From renowned fishing spots and bustling marinas to golf courses, everything you love about the area is within easy reach. Additional features include a spacious 2-car carport, 2 generous storage sheds. USDA 100% financing-eligible area. Some phots have been virtually staged to show furniture placement Buyer to verify all information.

16. 2026-05-04
    listed $189,500 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    This home is nearby of the picturesque shores of Pickwick Landing State Park, this well maintained single-level home offers a lot of privacy.  Step onto the back deck, where you can unwind in serene privacy or host memorable gatherings. Updates: HVAC system installed in 2021, while a newly renovated main bathroom with a step-in shower. The water heater (2021), refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making this home move-in ready. Additional features include a spacious 2-car carport, 2 generous storage sheds. USDA 100% financing-eligible area. Buyer to verify all information. Photo has been virtually staged to show furniture placement.

17. 2026-05-04
    listed $189,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    This home is nearby of the picturesque shores of Pickwick Landing State Park, this well maintained single-level home offers a lot of privacy.  Step onto the back deck, where you can unwind in serene privacy or host memorable gatherings. Updates: HVAC system installed in 2021, while a newly renovated main bathroom with a step-in shower. The water heater (2021), refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making this home move-in ready. Additional features include a spacious 2-car carport, 2 generous storage sheds. USDA 100% financing-eligible area. Buyer to verify all information. Photo has been virtually staged to show furniture placement.

18. 2026-04-30
    historical $189,500
19. 2020-10-20
    soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$801/yr (+$67/mo · 147.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable income: $1,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $3,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 4701680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,404
• Composite: 22.64/100
• National rank: #8061
• State rank: #76 of 139 in TN

Livability — Counce

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,566

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,740 people
• By 2030: 23,971 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,284 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 20,612 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 17,072 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 13,723 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.1% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+67.5 2016: R+64.2 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.21%
• Current HPI: 303.1462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+106.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $189,500 SAARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $189,500 VMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $189,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $189,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.