1103 Arbor Pl · Brandon, MS 39042

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1992 9,147 sqft lot Est $264k · 11% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great find in The Gardens of Crossgates. This 3 bedroom and 2 bath house has a split floor plan, separate laundry room, 2 car garage, screened in back porch and a family room with built in bookshelves. NEW A/C system installed Summer of 2018. NEW Dishwasher. Architectural shingled Roof. Inside, The master bedroom has a huge walk in closet with its own doorway leading out to the screened in back porch. The master bath has a double vanity, jetted tub and separate shower. Tucked back off the main road in a cul-de-sac with less yard to maintain for those not wanting to mow a whole lot of grass. Lots to love about this house, its calling you home to 1103 Arbor Place. Check it out today!

Key facts

• Backyard workshop
• Private backyard
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED IN PORCH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• BACKYARD WORKSHOP
• SOUGHT-AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a cul-de-sac; Lot ~0.21 acres (approximate)
• HOA & community: Association with semi-annual fee of $135

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Fiber to the house
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One-level; Living area recorded by appraiser
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch (screened); Screened porch; Rain gutters; Privacy wood fencing in back yard; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Water heater
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brandon Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #11 of 375 statewide, top 3%, 741 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,693 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Garden Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-4%)	4mo	$254,900	$154	82
301 Garden Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-8%)	6mo	$245,000	$155	75
22 Pebble Hill Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	3mo	$229,900	$129	68
505 Stuart Xing	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-6%)	1mo	$264,000	$164	58
116 Pavilion Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-12%)	7mo	$229,900	$152	54
70 Crossgates Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-10%)	4mo	$229,900	$149	52
45 Woodbridge Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-12%)	5mo	$229,000	$152	50
43 Sunline Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+10%)	6mo	$249,900	$133	47
2017 Rolling Hill Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-12%)	3mo	$243,000	$160	46
220 Cherry Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+13%)	6mo	$309,900	$160	40
11 Sandway Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-11%)	7mo	$235,250	$154	38
54 Willowbrook Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,958 (+14%)	6mo	$260,000	$133	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,595
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $36,560
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $941/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1290 W Government St Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,915	$1.70	14d	27	0.49mi
31 Pebble Hill Dr Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,950	$1.27	14d	1	0.51mi
7 Sandway Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,156	$1.09	44d	1	0.75mi
77 Fern Valley Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	14d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $235,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $941 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,857 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$915/yr (+$76/mo · 97.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$941
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $2,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $249,900 MLSU
• 2024-04-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-04-22 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $250,000 MLSU
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $254,990 MLSU
• 2024-01-26 Listed $255,000 MLSU
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-07-20 Listed $173,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $941 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.