21312 W Shalako Ln · Congress, AZ 85332

$97,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1999 3,485 sqft lot Est $181k · 46% under $54/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable park model home located in a quiet desert community in Congress with scenic mountain views and a peaceful atmosphere. This cozy home offers approximately 628 square feet of living space, featuring a comfortable living room with plenty of room to relax and a kitchen with large windows that provide abundant natural light. The kitchen also includes a self-cleaning oven, adding convenience to everyday living. Recent upgrades include a new roof and a full solar system that provides free electricity, helping keep utility costs low and making the home more energy efficient. The property includes covered parking, a fully fenced backyard, and mature shade and citrus trees, creating a priv

Key facts

• Full solar system
• Park model home
• Desert community

Tags

• PARK MODEL HOME
• DESERT COMMUNITY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SELF-CLEANING OVEN
• NEW ROOF
• FULL SOLAR SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is level and approximately 0.08 acres; Private maintained road with asphalt surface and private road frontage; Zoned PAD
• HOA & community: Subdivision association with an annual fee of $652; Subdivision amenities include a clubhouse; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered space); Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Photovoltaic power production; 220-volt electrical service; Propane water heater; Propane available (some propane services rented); Private water source; Private sewer (WWT - private sewer)
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Single-story
• Construction: Steel frame and frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front and rear landscaping; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed (only range and refrigerator explicitly noted)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Propane heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen and kitchen/dining combo; Vaulted ceilings; Washer/dryer connection; Arizona room (heated); Great room; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.2% in Congress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#75 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Congress Elementary District (4479) (rural): math 60% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #91 of 501 in AZ (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.02%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,700
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21261 W Wind Spirit Ln Lot 317	0.11mi	1/1.0	650 (0%)	16mo	$181,000	$278	82
21190 W Obsidian Dr #203	0.32mi	1/1.0	644 (-1%)	5mo	$247,000	$384	80
21305 W Trading Post Trl #376	0.01mi	1/1.0	610 (-6%)	12mo	$164,980	$270	79
30870 S Vagabond Trl	0.28mi	1/1.0	658 (+1%)	12mo	$199,000	$302	75
30515 S Quarry Ln	0.28mi	1/1.0	634 (-2%)	14mo	$172,000	$271	71
21325 W Outlaw Dr	0.16mi	1/1.0	578 (-11%)	7mo	$160,000	$277	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $30,320
• Equity at exit: $48,148

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $82,756
• Equity at exit: $77,741

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85332

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $256	+0% $228	+5% $200	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $184	+0% $228	+5% $272	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $253	base $228	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $97,500 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,500 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,500 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,500 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,500 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $97,500 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,500 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    price $97,500
17. 2026-05-08
    price $105,000
18. 2026-04-27
    price $115,000
19. 2026-04-16
    price $125,000
20. 2026-03-23
    price $135,000
21. 2026-03-03
    listed $145,000 Active
22. 2006-02-13
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 2006-02-13
    soldstatus $85,000
24. 2005-07-31
    historical
25. 2005-04-14
    listed $90,000
26. 2000-02-02
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $548 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,069
• − Management: −$1,069
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $1,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $2,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Congress Elementary District (4479)
• NCES district ID: 0402220
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,613
• Composite: 49.83/100
• National rank: #4193
• State rank: #91 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Congress

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #11962

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Congress, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,777

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Scottish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 513.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1118.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $97,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $105,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $115,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $125,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $135,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $145,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-04-14 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2000-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $548 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.