76135 38th Ave · Paw Paw Lake, MI 49043

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1989 3.00 ac lot $79/sqft · 43% below area Est $279k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($436/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Covert Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #630 of 760 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 91% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $127,830 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,653
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -40.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $58,089
• Equity at exit: $112,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $167,142
• Equity at exit: $211,973

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49043

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

4. 2026-04-18
   listed $165,000 Active 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

5. 2026-04-18
   listed $165,000 Active 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

6. 2026-04-18
   listed $165,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Priced well below SEV. To date, no Affidavit of Fixture has been issued by SOM. This is an estate. The Personal Representative has never lived in the home and is not related for deceased owners. This is an '' AS IS'' sale and most likely will require a cash purchaser. The home is set on a beautiful lot of about 3 acres, mostly wooded. There is no propane in the tank and the water is shut off. Highest and Best bid due May 4, 2026 by 5:00 PM.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $474 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,033/yr (+$86/mo · 217.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$474
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covert Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2610980
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,349
• Composite: 21.13/100
• National rank: #13687
• State rank: #630 of 760 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #11496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 27% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.83%
• Current HPI: 192.9859
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $165,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $165,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $474 · -64.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.