8523 Hearth Dr Unit 19-34 · Houston, TX 77054

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Condo public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1979 $83/sqft · 30% above area Est $96k · 30% over $435/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Convenient Location!!! Gated Community!!! This 3B/2B unit on 3rd floor features the hardwood floors throughout the entire unit, providing a clean, low-maintenance living environment with no carpeted areas. Kitchen with granite countertops and appliances are included in the sale. HOA includes water, sewer, trash,security public pool and tennis court access. On-site management, assigned covered and uncovered parking. Conveniently located to the Medical Center and walking distance to NRG.Perfect for investors seeking a long-term rental opportunity

Key facts

• Gated community
• Granite countertops
• Public pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PUBLIC POOL
• TENNIS COURT ACCESS
• ASSIGNED COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $125k implies a 614% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,154
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 30.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-14,321
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-18,951
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77054

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,321/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,775

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $215	+0% $180	+5% $144	+10% $109
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $101	+0% $180	+5% $259	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $211	base $180	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8415 Hearth Dr #25 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,950	$2.63	44d	1	0.08mi
8415 Hearth Dr Unit 1019639P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$5,205	$3.48	0d	1	0.08mi
8521 Hearth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,195	$1.09	44d	1	0.10mi
2801 S Bartell Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	13d	1	0.16mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	13d	2	0.25mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,808	$1.80	8d	3	0.25mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	0d	3	0.25mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC3 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	44d	1	0.25mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,595	$1.42	44d	1	0.25mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,920	$1.96	0d	20	0.27mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,810	$1.84	44d	35	0.27mi
2989 Westridge St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,639	$1.48	13d	1	0.45mi
9955 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,949	$2.23	0d	15	0.45mi
9330 Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,460	$2.69	0d	49	0.52mi
9330 S Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,415	$2.56	15d	53	0.54mi
9426 S Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,040	$1.61	44d	1	0.54mi
9016 Bayview Cove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2245	$4,200	$1.87	19d	1	0.59mi
3000 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,299	$1.50	3d	34	0.61mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,943	$1.68	0d	1	0.63mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,994	$1.72	0d	1	0.63mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,983	$1.71	12d	1	0.63mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 9144 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,660	$1.43	44d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10224 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,738	$1.57	12d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,714	$1.54	6d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,739	$1.57	0d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,714	$1.54	8d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10234 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,074	$1.36	12d	1	0.63mi
3006 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,253	$1.19	44d	1	0.69mi
3006 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,253	$1.19	23d	1	0.69mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,085	$1.37	0d	1	0.69mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,921	$1.35	0d	1	0.72mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,972	$1.39	0d	1	0.72mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10334 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,975	$1.39	44d	1	0.72mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,034	$1.34	0d	1	0.73mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,698	$1.53	0d	1	0.73mi
8706 S Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,725	$1.49	44d	1	0.78mi
9150 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,702	$1.47	13d	1	0.78mi
10191 S Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,110	$2.20	0d	136	0.78mi
8700 Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,859	$1.95	0d	5	0.79mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,103	$2.05	0d	19	0.82mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    price $1,450
14. 2026-03-19
    listed $125,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Convenient Location!!! Gated Community!!! This 3B/2B unit on 3rd floor features the hardwood floors throughout the entire unit, providing a clean, low-maintenance living environment with no carpeted areas. Kitchen with granite countertops and appliances are included in the sale. HOA includes water, sewer, trash,security public pool and tennis court access. On-site management, assigned covered and uncovered parking. Conveniently located to the Medical Center and walking distance to NRG.Perfect for investors seeking a long-term rental opportunity

15. 2026-03-05
    listed $1,790
16. 2026-03-04
    historical $1,800
17. 2026-02-14
    price $1,800
18. 2026-01-28
    listed $2,100
19. 2015-05-15
    soldstatus
20. 2010-04-26
    soldstatus
21. 2006-08-29
    soldstatus
22. 1995-03-31
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,321
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$140
• After-tax cash flow: $2,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,272
• Household income: $62,106
• Rent vs Own: 88.2% rent · 11.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2814.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Asian 22% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.51%
• Current HPI: 170.4017
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-91.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,790 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2015-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,321 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.