12483 Lookout Loop Unit F18-7 · Truckee, CA 96161

$25,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,470 sqft · Timeshare · 100 Days on market

$10/sqft · 74% above area $869/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this freshly renovated 4-bed Cabin w/ Bunk Room room at Old Greenwood, 1/17 shared ownership, featuring premium Winter premium President's week every year. Feb 12-19 2027) + floating time included. Preferred Access to two Championship golf courses accompany the Tahoe Mountain Club whenever you are in residence, including free shuttle service to Northstar resort and a private members lounge in the Village and private on-mountain restaurant creating a luxury 4-season club ownership experience. Guest can check in unaccompanied and use the amenities. Space Available is open for reservation by Flex, mid-week, and spontaneous reservations. Owner holds August 28-31, 2026 for your flexible and Thanksgiving - November 23-27, 2026 for midweek additional reservations.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath timeshare listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 233.9% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,322/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $22,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 29.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 233.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 813.00%
• DSCR: 37.17
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $14,398
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: 73.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 47.58×
• Total profit: $326,047
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 114.79×
• Total profit: $796,541
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,538
• Net cashflow: $4,743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,760	-5% $4,751	+0% $4,743	+5% $4,734	+10% $4,725
Rent	-10% $4,164	-5% $4,453	+0% $4,743	+5% $5,032	+10% $5,321
Rate	-1.0pp $4,755	-0.5pp $4,749	base $4,743	+0.5pp $4,736	+1.0pp $4,729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	44d	1	0.95mi
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	44d	1	0.95mi
10085 Nicolas Dr Unit A Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1871	$5,500	$2.94	44d	1	1.31mi
11319 Brockway Rd Truckee, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$4,200	$2.33	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $25,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    listed $25,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Enjoy this freshly renovated 4-bed Cabin w/ Bunk Room room at Old Greenwood, 1/17 shared ownership, featuring premium Winter premium President's week every year. Feb 12-19 2027) + floating time included. Preferred Access to two Championship golf courses accompany the Tahoe Mountain Club whenever you are in residence, including free shuttle service to Northstar resort and a private members lounge in the Village and private on-mountain restaurant creating a luxury 4-season club ownership experience. Guest can check in unaccompanied and use the amenities. Space Available is open for reservation by Flex, mid-week, and spontaneous reservations. Owner holds August 28-31, 2026 for your flexible and Thanksgiving - November 23-27, 2026 for midweek additional reservations.

17. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Enjoy President's Week as your primary week every year. With options for flex, mid-week, and spontaneous use as well. Considered Winter prime time. Fractional ownership at Old Greenwood and membership includes the Tahoe Mountain Club. 4-bedroom Cabin with loft, pool table, hot tub. Preferred Access to two Championship golf courses accompany the Tahoe Mountain Club membership whenever you are in residence, including free shuttle service to Northstar resort, where private amenities await you.

18. 2018-07-25
    status Pending 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Enjoy President's Week as your primary week every year. With options for flex, mid-week, and spontaneous use as well. Considered Winter prime time. Fractional ownership at Old Greenwood and membership includes the Tahoe Mountain Club. 4-bedroom Cabin with loft, pool table, hot tub. Preferred Access to two Championship golf courses accompany the Tahoe Mountain Club membership whenever you are in residence, including free shuttle service to Northstar resort, where private amenities await you.

19. 2018-07-21
    price $25,000 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Enjoy President's Week as your primary week every year. With options for flex, mid-week, and spontaneous use as well. Considered Winter prime time. Fractional ownership at Old Greenwood and membership includes the Tahoe Mountain Club. 4-bedroom Cabin with loft, pool table, hot tub. Preferred Access to two Championship golf courses accompany the Tahoe Mountain Club membership whenever you are in residence, including free shuttle service to Northstar resort, where private amenities await you.

20. 2018-04-05
    listed $61,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Enjoy President's Week as your primary week every year. With options for flex, mid-week, and spontaneous use as well. Considered Winter prime time. Fractional ownership at Old Greenwood and membership includes the Tahoe Mountain Club. 4-bedroom Cabin with loft, pool table, hot tub. Preferred Access to two Championship golf courses accompany the Tahoe Mountain Club membership whenever you are in residence, including free shuttle service to Northstar resort, where private amenities await you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,029
• − Management: −$7,029
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $60,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,580
• After-tax cash flow: $42,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-59.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $25,000 TSMLS
• 2018-08-15 Sold (MLS) $25,000 TSMLS
• 2018-07-25 Pending — TSMLS
• 2018-07-21 Price Changed $25,000 TSMLS
• 2018-04-05 Listed $61,000 TSMLS