953 Dahlia Dr · Lavon, TX 75166

$314,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,071 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $315k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21172306 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-880/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $273,095 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,990
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
953 Dahlia Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,071 (0%)	1mo	$314,990	$152	99
685 Sierra Rdg	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+3%)	1mo	$349,490	$164	88
671 Sierra Rdg	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-5%)	2mo	$317,990	$162	79
865 River Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-0%)	0mo	$317,990	$154	75
525 Epiphany Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,133 (+3%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	74
411 Epiphany Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-7%)	0mo	$348,990	$180	66
140 Millwood Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-0%)	1mo	$320,490	$155	64
873 River Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,311 (+12%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	56
416 Epiphany Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-11%)	1mo	$309,990	$168	55
1211 Paintbrush Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,321 (+12%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	53
1216 Bellflower Rd	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+12%)	2mo	$334,990	$144	51
466 Hayes St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$149	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,641
• Equity at exit: $46,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,166
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,824

Max offer price $304,373

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $35	+0% $-73	+5% $-182	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-181	+0% $-73	+5% $34	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $7	base $-73	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,748
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	8d	1	0.03mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	8d	1	0.04mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	45d	1	0.06mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.12mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.14mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	16d	1	0.15mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	8d	1	0.16mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	16d	1	0.18mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	25d	1	0.18mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.20mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	14d	1	0.21mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.21mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.23mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	45d	1	0.23mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	45d	1	0.23mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	4d	1	0.23mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.23mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	25d	1	0.26mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.26mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	45d	1	0.27mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	45d	1	0.28mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	45d	1	0.28mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	7d	1	0.28mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	45d	1	0.30mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.33mi
1093 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2709	$2,700	$1.00	0d	1	0.35mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	6d	1	0.53mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	18d	1	0.54mi
876 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2321	$3,550	$1.53	0d	1	0.56mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	0.57mi
888 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2071	$3,550	$1.71	0d	1	0.58mi
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	45d	1	0.75mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	25d	1	0.80mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	45d	1	0.83mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	0.84mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	5d	1	0.88mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	22d	1	0.90mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	0.98mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	25d	1	0.99mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	25d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Active 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   MLS# 21172306 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

2. 2026-03-11
   status Pending 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   MLS# 21172306 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

3. 2026-02-05
   listed $314,990 Active 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   MLS# 21172306 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,163
• Taxable loss: −$6,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $314,990 NTREIS