26300 Deertrail Dr · Bear Valley Springs, CA 93561

$279,777

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1975 1.43 ac lot $230/sqft · 16% below area Est $332k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mountain top get away for under $300k! This Gambrel Style home is located in the gated community of Bear Valley Springs, surrounded by oaks, pines and rock clusters. The amazing views from the multiple decks are priceless and being in the mountains is peaceful. The home sits on almost 1.5 acres with the wildlife being abundant. The seller has done some updating that includes; all new engineered wood and carpet floors, new interior paint, new light fixtures, new front door, new stove and new kitchen sink. The lower level includes a living room, full bathroom, 2 bedrooms along with the laundry area and a large covered deck. The upper level includes the kitchen, master bedroom/bathroom, family room and 2 open decks. The carport area includes an enclosed storage area, just off the circular driveway. The corner lot provides plenty of room to add a garage, workshop and RV parking. The seller's plans have changed and he is giving you the chance to come in and finish the work he started. This would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence with Bear Valley having amenities that include; golf, tennis, swimming, lakes, shooting range, pickleball, gym, restaurants, equestrian area and so much more. See www. bvsa.org for more info on the community.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Multiple decks
• New carpet floors

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MULTIPLE DECKS
• ALMOST 1.5 ACRES
• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORS
• NEW CARPET FLOORS
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($166/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.8% in Bear Valley Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#942 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tehachapi Unified (town): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #285 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 654 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $226k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,250 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,588
• List price: $279,777
• Delta: -15.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26100 Deertrail Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,358 (+12%)	10mo	$290,000	$214	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,306
• Equity at exit: $41,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-70,042
• Equity at exit: $24,190

Cash invested: $78,338 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93561

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,467
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,321/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,355

Max offer price $279,777

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,944
• Closing costs: $8,393
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,777 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,777 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,777 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,777 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,777 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,777 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,777 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,777 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-02-01
   status Active 1266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

   Mountain top get away for under $300k! This Gambrel Style home is located in the gated community of Bear Valley Springs, surrounded by oaks, pines and rock clusters. The amazing views from the multiple decks are priceless and being in the mountains is peaceful. The home sits on almost 1.5 acres with the wildlife being abundant. The seller has done some updating that includes; all new engineered wood and carpet floors, new interior paint, new light fixtures, new front door, new stove and new kitchen sink. The lower level includes a living room, full bathroom, 2 bedrooms along with the laundry area and a large covered deck. The upper level includes the kitchen, master bedroom/bathroom, family room and 2 open decks. The carport area includes an enclosed storage area, just off the circular driveway. The corner lot provides plenty of room to add a garage, workshop and RV parking. The seller's plans have changed and he is giving you the chance to come in and finish the work he started. This would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence with Bear Valley having amenities that include; golf, tennis, swimming, lakes, shooting range, pickleball, gym, restaurants, equestrian area and so much more. See www. bvsa.org for more info on the community.

10. 2026-02-01
    price $279,777 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Mountain top get away for under $300k! This Gambrel Style home is located in the gated community of Bear Valley Springs, surrounded by oaks, pines and rock clusters. The amazing views from the multiple decks are priceless and being in the mountains is peaceful. The home sits on almost 1.5 acres with the wildlife being abundant. The seller has done some updating that includes; all new engineered wood and carpet floors, new interior paint, new light fixtures, new front door, new stove and new kitchen sink. The lower level includes a living room, full bathroom, 2 bedrooms along with the laundry area and a large covered deck. The upper level includes the kitchen, master bedroom/bathroom, family room and 2 open decks. The carport area includes an enclosed storage area, just off the circular driveway. The corner lot provides plenty of room to add a garage, workshop and RV parking. The seller's plans have changed and he is giving you the chance to come in and finish the work he started. This would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence with Bear Valley having amenities that include; golf, tennis, swimming, lakes, shooting range, pickleball, gym, restaurants, equestrian area and so much more. See www. bvsa.org for more info on the community.

11. 2025-12-23
    status Pending 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Mountain top get away for under $300k! This Gambrel Style home is located in the gated community of Bear Valley Springs, surrounded by oaks, pines and rock clusters. The amazing views from the multiple decks are priceless and being in the mountains is peaceful. The home sits on almost 1.5 acres with the wildlife being abundant. The seller has done some updating that includes; all new engineered wood and carpet floors, new interior paint, new light fixtures, new front door, new stove and new kitchen sink. The lower level includes a living room, full bathroom, 2 bedrooms along with the laundry area and a large covered deck. The upper level includes the kitchen, master bedroom/bathroom, family room and 2 open decks. The carport area includes an enclosed storage area, just off the circular driveway. The corner lot provides plenty of room to add a garage, workshop and RV parking. The seller's plans have changed and he is giving you the chance to come in and finish the work he started. This would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence with Bear Valley having amenities that include; golf, tennis, swimming, lakes, shooting range, pickleball, gym, restaurants, equestrian area and so much more. See www. bvsa.org for more info on the community.

12. 2025-12-19
    listed $267,777 Active 1266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1266 chars)

    Mountain top get away for under $300k! This Gambrel Style home is located in the gated community of Bear Valley Springs, surrounded by oaks, pines and rock clusters. The amazing views from the multiple decks are priceless and being in the mountains is peaceful. The home sits on almost 1.5 acres with the wildlife being abundant. The seller has done some updating that includes; all new engineered wood and carpet floors, new interior paint, new light fixtures, new front door, new stove and new kitchen sink. The lower level includes a living room, full bathroom, 2 bedrooms along with the laundry area and a large covered deck. The upper level includes the kitchen, master bedroom/bathroom, family room and 2 open decks. The carport area includes an enclosed storage area, just off the circular driveway. The corner lot provides plenty of room to add a garage, workshop and RV parking. The seller's plans have changed and he is giving you the chance to come in and finish the work he started. This would make a great weekend retreat or full time residence with Bear Valley having amenities that include; golf, tennis, swimming, lakes, shooting range, pickleball, gym, restaurants, equestrian area and so much more. See www. bvsa.org for more info on the community.

13. 2024-05-13
    soldstatus $225,777 Closed 1397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

    Nestled on 26300 Deertrail Dr in Bear Valley Springs, California, this property presents a charming cabin retreat amidst stunning views. With three decks/patios, residents can indulge in the surrounding natural beauty from multiple perspectives. While the cabin requires some tender loving care (TLC), its attractive price point offers an enticing investment opportunity. Whether envisioned as a cozy residential escape, a tranquil vacation retreat, or an investment property, its adaptability caters to diverse aspirations. Inside, the allure of tongue and groove ceilings imparts a rustic charm, accentuating the cabin's character and inviting ambiance. The presence of 2 wood-burning stoves adds a cozy touch, providing warmth and comfort during chilly evenings. Located in the prestigious guard-gated community of Bear Valley Springs, offering our residents a resort community meets National Park lifestyle! Amenities offered to residents include a 9-hole Golf Course, 2 Community Pools, 2 Lakes (fishing, boating, swimming), Oak Tree Country Club fine dining, the Mulligan room coffee shop, Community Center recreation hall with gym, Equestrian Center, 55 mi. of scenic, groomed Horse/ Hiking trails, Campgrounds & Town Center (gas/market/snack bar) just to name a few. Come discover why Bear Valley Springs is still California's best kept secret! Come for a visit, stay for a lifetime!

14. 2024-05-13
    soldstatus $226,000

    Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

    Nestled on 26300 Deertrail Dr in Bear Valley Springs, California, this property presents a charming cabin retreat amidst stunning views. With three decks/patios, residents can indulge in the surrounding natural beauty from multiple perspectives. While the cabin requires some tender loving care (TLC), its attractive price point offers an enticing investment opportunity. Whether envisioned as a cozy residential escape, a tranquil vacation retreat, or an investment property, its adaptability caters to diverse aspirations. Inside, the allure of tongue and groove ceilings imparts a rustic charm, accentuating the cabin's character and inviting ambiance. The presence of 2 wood-burning stoves adds a cozy touch, providing warmth and comfort during chilly evenings. Located in the prestigious guard-gated community of Bear Valley Springs, offering our residents a resort community meets National Park lifestyle! Amenities offered to residents include a 9-hole Golf Course, 2 Community Pools, 2 Lakes (fishing, boating, swimming), Oak Tree Country Club fine dining, the Mulligan room coffee shop, Community Center recreation hall with gym, Equestrian Center, 55 mi. of scenic, groomed Horse/ Hiking trails, Campgrounds & Town Center (gas/market/snack bar) just to name a few. Come discover why Bear Valley Springs is still California's best kept secret! Come for a visit, stay for a lifetime!

15. 2024-04-28
    status Pending 1397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

    Nestled on 26300 Deertrail Dr in Bear Valley Springs, California, this property presents a charming cabin retreat amidst stunning views. With three decks/patios, residents can indulge in the surrounding natural beauty from multiple perspectives. While the cabin requires some tender loving care (TLC), its attractive price point offers an enticing investment opportunity. Whether envisioned as a cozy residential escape, a tranquil vacation retreat, or an investment property, its adaptability caters to diverse aspirations. Inside, the allure of tongue and groove ceilings imparts a rustic charm, accentuating the cabin's character and inviting ambiance. The presence of 2 wood-burning stoves adds a cozy touch, providing warmth and comfort during chilly evenings. Located in the prestigious guard-gated community of Bear Valley Springs, offering our residents a resort community meets National Park lifestyle! Amenities offered to residents include a 9-hole Golf Course, 2 Community Pools, 2 Lakes (fishing, boating, swimming), Oak Tree Country Club fine dining, the Mulligan room coffee shop, Community Center recreation hall with gym, Equestrian Center, 55 mi. of scenic, groomed Horse/ Hiking trails, Campgrounds & Town Center (gas/market/snack bar) just to name a few. Come discover why Bear Valley Springs is still California's best kept secret! Come for a visit, stay for a lifetime!

16. 2024-04-19
    listed $249,000 Active 1397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

    Nestled on 26300 Deertrail Dr in Bear Valley Springs, California, this property presents a charming cabin retreat amidst stunning views. With three decks/patios, residents can indulge in the surrounding natural beauty from multiple perspectives. While the cabin requires some tender loving care (TLC), its attractive price point offers an enticing investment opportunity. Whether envisioned as a cozy residential escape, a tranquil vacation retreat, or an investment property, its adaptability caters to diverse aspirations. Inside, the allure of tongue and groove ceilings imparts a rustic charm, accentuating the cabin's character and inviting ambiance. The presence of 2 wood-burning stoves adds a cozy touch, providing warmth and comfort during chilly evenings. Located in the prestigious guard-gated community of Bear Valley Springs, offering our residents a resort community meets National Park lifestyle! Amenities offered to residents include a 9-hole Golf Course, 2 Community Pools, 2 Lakes (fishing, boating, swimming), Oak Tree Country Club fine dining, the Mulligan room coffee shop, Community Center recreation hall with gym, Equestrian Center, 55 mi. of scenic, groomed Horse/ Hiking trails, Campgrounds & Town Center (gas/market/snack bar) just to name a few. Come discover why Bear Valley Springs is still California's best kept secret! Come for a visit, stay for a lifetime!

17. 1980-08-31
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,321 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,321 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,672
• − Property taxes: −$3,321
• − Insurance: −$1,399
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$8,139
• Taxable loss: −$4,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tehachapi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,230
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6497
• State rank: #285 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bear Valley Springs

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #942
• US rank: #24344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Valley Springs, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 31,175
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,175
• Household income: $87,357
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 568.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.70%
• Current HPI: 371.6546
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+288.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Relisted — TAAR
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $279,777 TAAR
• 2025-12-23 Pending — TAAR
• 2025-12-19 Listed $267,777 TAAR
• 2024-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-13 Sold (MLS) $225,777 TAAR
• 2024-04-28 Pending — TAAR
• 2024-04-19 Listed $249,000 TAAR
• 1980-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,321 · +28.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.