Carolina Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$279,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · Townhouse · 269 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story condo is the largest plan in the collection. Near the foyer are a guest bedroom and den, which can also double as a bedroom. The kitchen has a dining room tucked to the side and opens to the living room with access to a lanai. The owner's suite is situated toward the back of the home for privacy, complete with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• GUEST BEDROOM
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FITNESS AND SPA AMENITIES
• RESORT-STYLE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $279,999

Exterior

• Home design: Carolina plan; New construction plan
• Construction: Built as part of a new construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,301 (provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Interior details not provided

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $342,163.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,460/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,981 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,163
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5555 Double Eagle Cir #3935	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	1mo	$295,000	$263	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-63,021
• Equity at exit: $81,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-74,775
• Equity at exit: $85,226

Cash invested: $95,806 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,794
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$428 /mo · $5,132/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,186

Max offer price $259,191

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-455	+0% $-573	+5% $-692	+10% $-810
Rent	-10% $-768	-5% $-671	+0% $-573	+5% $-476	+10% $-379
Rate	-1.0pp $-401	-0.5pp $-486	base $-573	+0.5pp $-662	+1.0pp $-752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,541
• Closing costs: $10,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	25d	1	0.01mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	25d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4217 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	25d	1	0.01mi
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	25d	1	0.01mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	25d	1	0.01mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	25d	1	0.01mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	25d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	25d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	25d	1	0.01mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	25d	1	0.01mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	25d	1	0.01mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	15d	1	0.01mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	25d	1	0.01mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	23d	1	0.15mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	25d	2	0.17mi
6023 Ellerston Way #1823 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,995	$1.77	25d	1	0.21mi
5909 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	0.24mi
6058 National Blvd #343 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	25d	1	0.25mi
6058 National Blvd #335 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	15d	1	0.26mi
6058 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$2,995	$2.47	25d	2	0.26mi
6046 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$4,395	$3.81	25d	2	0.29mi
6034 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1137	$4,046	$3.56	15d	3	0.35mi
5410 Double Eagle Cir #2222 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	25d	1	0.38mi
5428 Double Eagle Cir #2517 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,695	$1.99	25d	1	0.38mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4742 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	25d	1	0.41mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4631 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,695	$4.38	25d	1	0.41mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir #2915 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	23d	1	0.42mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,295	$2.41	25d	1	0.44mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	25d	1	0.44mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2812 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	15d	1	0.44mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3515 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	25d	1	0.48mi
5466 Double Eagle Cir #3425 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,995	$4.42	25d	1	0.48mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	25d	1	0.50mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	25d	1	0.51mi
5943 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	0.52mi
6011 Ellerston Way #811 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,595	$1.49	15d	1	0.53mi
6040 Ellerston Way #1411 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,695	$1.55	25d	1	0.54mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3521 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$4,995	$3.18	25d	1	0.54mi
5454 Double Eagle Cir #3325 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,495	$1.84	25d	1	0.55mi
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	15d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $279,999 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,999 Active 258 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,999 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,999 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 247 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,166
• − Property taxes: −$5,132
• − Insurance: −$3,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$9,954
• Taxable loss: −$12,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B