17227 Whiskey Creek Trl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$467,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,490 sqft · Land · 160 Days on market

Built 2026 8,447 sqft lot $132/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! Receive up to $15,000 towards closing costs and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender + $5,000 towards upgrades - Now through Sunday, May 31st. Introducing the Covington, a stunning single-story home thoughtfully designed for modern living. Offering 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 3-car garage, this spacious floor plan provides everything you need for both comfortable living and seamless entertaining. The Covington features an open-concept design that effortlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, making it an ideal space for family gatherings and hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen is a chef’s delight, complete with stainless ste

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,014; Monthly HOA amount listed as $132
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Access Management) — monthly fee $132; Association amenities: pool, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, tennis courts, basketball court, pickleball courts, recreation facilities, community mailbox; Association fee includes pool and grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Pets allowed; CDD: yes

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (27 x 21) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; New construction (completed); Faces southwest
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D R Horton (model: Covington)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Pond view; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Thermostat; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $467k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-901 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($411k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,195 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-142,044
• Equity at exit: $69,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-232,298
• Equity at exit: $40,378

Cash invested: $130,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,449
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$584 /mo · $7,005/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,252

Max offer price $336,640

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-578	-5% $-740	+0% $-901	+5% $-1,062	+10% $-1,224
Rent	-10% $-1,147	-5% $-1,024	+0% $-901	+5% $-778	+10% $-655
Rate	-1.0pp $-666	-0.5pp $-782	base $-901	+0.5pp $-1,022	+1.0pp $-1,145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,750
• Closing costs: $14,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15769 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	16d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $467,000
3. 2026-05-06
   price $469,000
4. 2026-04-29
   price $472,000
5. 2026-04-22
   price $474,000
6. 2026-04-15
   price $477,000
7. 2026-04-09
   price $479,000
8. 2026-04-02
   price $482,000
9. 2026-03-25
   price $484,000
10. 2026-03-18
    price $487,000
11. 2026-03-12
    price $489,000
12. 2026-03-05
    price $492,000
13. 2026-01-28
    price $494,000
14. 2025-12-09
    listed $497,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,159
• − Property taxes: −$7,005
• − Insurance: −$2,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$13,585
• Taxable loss: −$19,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,632
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $467,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $469,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $472,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $474,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $477,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $479,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $482,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $484,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $487,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $492,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $494,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $497,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid