3950 Mack Rd #158 · Sacramento, CA 95823

$174,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 89 Days on market

Built 2000 $125/sqft · 21% above area Est $144k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained and spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home, built in 2000 and offering approximately 1,400 square feet of comfortable living space. Perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot, this home provides both privacy and convenience. Step inside to enjoy a bright and inviting interior featuring custom paint that adds warmth and character throughout. The open layout offers plenty of room for both everyday living and entertaining, making it ideal for families or anyone who appreciates extra space. Outside, you'll find one of the standout features of this propertyample parking with space for up to five vehicles, a rare and valuable convenience. The corner lo

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Corner lot
• Built 2000

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• BRIGHT INVITING INTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,558/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 4034% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.90%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,500
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 21.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Mack Rd #186	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+1%)	13mo	$205,413	$146	72
3950 Mack Rd #175	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+12%)	3mo	$140,000	$89	67
3950 Mack Rd #43	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	23mo	$160,000	$100	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $15,975
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $51,878
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95823

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $933	-5% $873	+0% $812	+5% $752	+10% $691
Rent	-10% $610	-5% $711	+0% $812	+5% $913	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $900	-0.5pp $857	base $812	+0.5pp $767	+1.0pp $721

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7726 Laurie Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1069	$2,075	$1.94	8d	1	0.27mi
7570 Wrenwood Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,395	$1.56	45d	1	0.55mi
7826 Brizio Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1616	$2,950	$1.83	4d	1	0.68mi
4066 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,900	$1.44	45d	1	0.71mi
4690 Brookfield Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,500	$1.43	21d	1	0.97mi
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$3,283	$2.68	45d	1	0.99mi
3249 Torrance Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1258	$2,599	$2.07	25d	1	1.04mi
4623 Goya Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,400	$1.93	45d	1	1.17mi
4407 Bouts Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	45d	1	1.18mi
4985 Valley Hi Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,300	$1.53	45d	1	1.20mi
4417 A Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	45d	1	1.28mi
7663 22nd St Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,999	$1.11	25d	1	1.31mi
451 Ashwick Loop Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1538	$2,395	$1.56	9d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $174,900 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Contingent (Show) 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $7,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,776
• After-tax cash flow: $7,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 83,607
• Household income: $66,895
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4034.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 25% Black 17% Two or more races 16% White 11% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.02%
• Current HPI: 377.4278
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.