219 Ludington St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$139,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1908 3,600 sqft lot $83/sqft · 10% below area Est $155k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom single unit home located in the Bailey-Lovejoy area. This 1,688 sq ft property offers large living and dining areas, generous bedroom sizes with 2 bedrooms on each floor. The home features a nice size basement and a spacious backyard ideal for outdoor activities or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways. Great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors seeking a well-sized home in a central Buffalo location. Showings begin immediately.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Nice size basement
• 3,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• NICE SIZE BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $140k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,024
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 9.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Ludington St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+0%)	10mo	$212,000	$125	83
42 Hennepin St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,733 (+3%)	3mo	$220,000	$127	72
15 Central Ave	0.49mi	4/1.0	1,730 (+2%)	4mo	$130,000	$75	70
92 Schiller St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,788 (+6%)	6mo	$200,000	$112	68
146 Longnecker St	0.19mi	4/1.0	1,460 (-14%)	9mo	$160,400	$110	61
16 Regent St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,604 (-5%)	8mo	$115,000	$72	57
138 Wagner Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,487 (-12%)	7mo	$220,000	$148	48
108 Halstead Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,710 (+1%)	13mo	$174,000	$102	46
231 N Pleasant Pkwy	0.74mi	4/1.0	1,512 (-10%)	8mo	$155,000	$103	42
441 Schiller St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,478 (-12%)	5mo	$145,000	$98	37
433 Benzinger St	0.66mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,476 (-13%)	6mo	$170,000	$115	36
437 N Ogden St Unit E	0.68mi	4/0.5	1,446 (-14%)	10mo	$145,000	$100	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $84,186
• Equity at exit: $106,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $224,754
• Equity at exit: $212,612

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $370/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $489	-5% $449	+0% $410	+5% $370	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $348	+0% $410	+5% $471	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $480	-0.5pp $445	base $410	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	0.44mi
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	0.73mi
14 Rutland Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1430	$2,200	$1.54	11d	1	1.18mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	2d	1	1.39mi
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricestatus $139,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $129,900 Pending 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-20
   listed $129,900 Active 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Come check out this spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom single unit home located in the Bailey-Lovejoy area. This 1,688 sq ft property offers large living and dining areas, generous bedroom sizes with 2 bedrooms on each floor. The home features a nice size basement and a spacious backyard ideal for outdoor activities or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways. Great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors seeking a well-sized home in a central Buffalo location. Showings begin immediately.

9. 2025-11-21
   price $129,900
10. 2025-10-20
    listed $139,900 Active
11. 2025-10-09
    historical
12. 2025-09-19
    price $169,999
13. 2025-09-11
    listed $189,999 Active
14. 2025-09-09
    listed $169,999 Active
15. 2019-03-26
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed Sale or Rented
16. 2019-03-21
    soldstatus $45,000
17. 2019-01-11
    status Pending Sale
18. 2018-11-20
    listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $370 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$997/yr (+$83/mo · 269.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$370
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $2,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$660
• After-tax cash flow: $4,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+136.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $169,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Listed $189,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $169,999 Fizber.com
• 2019-03-26 Sold (MLS) $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-11-20 Listed $54,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $370 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.