4979 Duncan Rd · Jasper, AL 35578

$72,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1965 0.60 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is being sold ''AS IS''. It will need repairs. HVAC doesn't work. It features a metal roof and large fenced in backyard. With a little love and attention, this house could be great home.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• LARGE FENCED IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Wood siding; 0.6-acre lot

Interior

• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#228 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,339 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.39%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $34,091
• Equity at exit: $10,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $88,723
• Equity at exit: $6,303

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35578

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $162/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $539

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $762	-5% $742	+0% $721	+5% $701	+10% $680
Rent	-10% $606	-5% $664	+0% $721	+5% $779	+10% $836
Rate	-1.0pp $758	-0.5pp $740	base $721	+0.5pp $702	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 197-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $72,900 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $162 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $299 · $25/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 84.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$162
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $7,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,898
• After-tax cash flow: $6,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #17152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,927
• Population (ZIP): 5,791

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.67%
• Current HPI: 143.3678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $72,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-04-27 Delisted — Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $89,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $93,250 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $92,100 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $73,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $74,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $75,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $98,500 Walker County Area MLS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $99,900 Walker County Area MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2016): $162 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.