4127 Knoll Dr · Waco, TX 76708

$237,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1981 2.17 ac lot $157/sqft · 15% below area Est $279k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LISTING! This charming unique home is sitting on OVER TWO ACRES of land - Waco, Texas! Don't miss out on this interesting 1 and a half story home! Includes a spacious attached garage, a carport and a storage shed. The seller is in the PROCESS of doing some NICE UPDATES. This property is located near the Waco Regional Airport and also the Airport Beach Park. It has easy access to major Highways and daily amenities all within a short distance. Enjoy the History and community that Waco has to offer! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the OTHER HOMES that we may have for sale in the WACO AREA.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• OVER TWO ACRES
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• DAILY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,465 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,307
• List price: $237,999
• Delta: -14.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10808 Aurora Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+3%)	0mo	$257,000	$164	87
4133 Knoll Dr	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+5%)	4mo	$218,000	$136	82
10514 Mesa Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+7%)	2mo	$299,000	$184	78
10600 Lilry Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (+7%)	3mo	$289,000	$178	78
10608 Lone Star Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+4%)	2mo	$285,000	$179	76
10321 Walley Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-1%)	1mo	$259,900	$172	75
10421 Arabella Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	1mo	$265,000	$175	73
10400 Marigold Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+4%)	3mo	$260,000	$165	71
10204 Driskill Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (+6%)	2mo	$278,000	$172	63
10237 Omni Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	3mo	$299,900	$183	57
10204 Marigold Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-11%)	0mo	$239,500	$177	49
10148 Barton Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-10%)	4mo	$242,000	$176	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-63,689
• Equity at exit: $35,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-101,857
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,641/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $183,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-241	+0% $-309	+5% $-376	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-384	+0% $-309	+5% $-233	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-189	-0.5pp $-248	base $-309	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	44d	1	0.69mi
9900 China Spring Rd Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,405	$1.47	14d	1	0.79mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	14d	1	1.08mi
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	22d	1	1.13mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	14d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,999 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,999 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,999 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,999 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $237,999 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,999 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,999 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,999 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,999 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,999 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,999 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,999 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $237,999 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-01-30
    listed $237,999 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    NEW LISTING! This charming unique home is sitting on OVER TWO ACRES of land - Waco, Texas! Don't miss out on this interesting 1 and a half story home! Includes a spacious attached garage, a carport and a storage shed. The seller is in the PROCESS of doing some NICE UPDATES. This property is located near the Waco Regional Airport and also the Airport Beach Park. It has easy access to major Highways and daily amenities all within a short distance. Enjoy the History and community that Waco has to offer! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. When you call be sure and ask about the OTHER HOMES that we may have for sale in the WACO AREA.

16. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus
17. 2016-07-25
    historical
18. 2016-01-14
    listed $118,900
19. 2015-07-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,641 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,641 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$5,641
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$7,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $237,999 HARMLS
• 2017-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-01-14 Listed $118,900 NTREIS
• 2015-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,641 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.