Is 11614 Ruffian Dr in Willis, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.5% cap rate and $-408/mo modeled cash flow at a $229,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 11614 Ruffian Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,907/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.46

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.9/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
DSCR +1.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$229,990

11614 Ruffian Dr · Willis, TX 77318

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,773 sqft lot Garage $66/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

FANTASTIC BRAND NEW D. R. HORTON HOME IN LEXINGTON HEIGHTS! WONDERFUL COMMUNITY IN EXCELLENT LOCATION ON CORNER HOMESITE! Close to Lake Conroe and endless entertainment options! Charming one story with gourmet island kitchen! Includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room! The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop! Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms! Water Softener & Filtration System Included!

Key facts

Quality cabinets
Quartz counter tops
Ensuite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-408 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (9.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (17.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $191k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $190,685 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.46%
Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $267,490
List price: $229,990
Delta: -14.02%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11618 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	1mo	$240,990	$164	92
11643 Ruffian Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	1mo	$241,990	$165	91
11622 Ruffian Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	0mo	$239,615	$187	81
12164 Lexington Heights Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	0mo	$224,990	$176	80
11654 Ruffian Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	1mo	$232,990	$182	78
11626 Ruffian Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	1mo	$242,990	$154	77
11642 Ruffian Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	0mo	$243,990	$155	76
11814 Serena's Song Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+10%)	2mo	$276,490	$176	70
11783 Ruffian Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,434 (0%)	2mo	$234,990	$164	67
11605 Whirlaway Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-3%)	0mo	$264,900	$191	64
12026 Curlin Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-3%)	0mo	$249,900	$180	64
11695 Ruffian Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	2mo	$243,990	$155	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.1%
Equity multiple: 0.00×
Total profit: $-74,859
Equity at exit: $39,884

10-year hold

IRR: -55.7%
Equity multiple: -0.60×
Total profit: $-119,974
Equity at exit: $23,128

Cash invested: $74,897 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 35 active · 32 under contract
Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $268,990 ($176/sqft)
Median days on market: 68 d
This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

Home prices YoY: -32.7%
Rents YoY: -2.1%
Active inventory: 1387
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,907 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,403
Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,012/yr
Insurance: −$111
HOA: −$66
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
Net cashflow: $-408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,423

Max offer price $208,430

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-316	+0% $-408	+5% $-501	+10% $-593
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-483	+0% $-408	+5% $-333	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-340	base $-408	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $66,872
Closing costs: $8,025
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11848 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	73d	1	0.46mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	93d	1	0.49mi
11889 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,725	$1.24	38d	1	0.51mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,650	$1.19	23d	1	1.06mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,715	$1.19	23d	1	1.09mi
11114 N Lake Mist Ln Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,499	$1.14	23d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community association managed by ICM ManagementAnnual association fee of $795

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built by D.R. HortonBrick and cement sidingYear built: 2026
Exterior features: Covered patioPatio and deckPrivate yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigationCorner lot in a subdivision

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowavePantryQuartz counters
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14x12)Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10x10)Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10x10)
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen and family room combinedKitchen and dining area combinedLiving and dining roomPantryQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $66/mo · $792/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $229,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $229,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $229,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $229,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $229,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $229,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $229,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $229,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $229,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $229,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $229,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $229,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $229,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $229,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $229,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $229,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $229,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $229,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $229,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $229,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $229,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $229,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $229,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $229,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $229,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $229,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $229,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $229,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $229,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $229,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $229,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-01

price $229,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $243,340 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $243,340 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $243,340 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $243,340 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $243,340 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $243,340 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $243,340 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $243,340 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $243,340 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-17

pricestatus $243,340 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $237,990 Active Under Contract 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,882
− Mortgage interest: −$14,984
− Property taxes: −$4,012
− Insurance: −$1,337
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
− Management: −$1,831
− HOA: −$792
− Depreciation: −$7,782
Taxable loss: −$9,686

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,325
After-tax cash flow: $-2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new D.R. Horton home in Lexington Heights is move-in ready with a modern kitchen, spacious living areas, and a well-maintained exterior. It offers excellent curb appeal and is located in an excellent location with access to Lake Conroe and entertainment options.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Install smart thermostat — Saves on energy costs and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Add smart security system — Enhances safety and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Willis ISD
NCES district ID: 4845900
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,828
Composite: 32.32/100
National rank: #5746
State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

Score: 62/100
State rank: #933
US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 38,421
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,792
Household income: $92,415
Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
Current HPI: 236.256
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-06-17 Relisted — HARMLS
2026-06-17 Price Changed $243,340 HARMLS
2026-05-29 Contingent — HARMLS
2026-05-07 Listed $237,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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