29059 Bison Haven Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$280,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lucia Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner’s suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNERS SUITE
• FLEXIBLE OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• INVITING COVERED PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar Homes; Subdivision lot
• HOA & community: Community managed by CCMC; HOA fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-family style with 2,233 living area; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 12); Bedroom on second floor (10 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (11 x 11); Bedroom on second floor (11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $280,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,607.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $240,129 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,607
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -10.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29067 Bison Haven Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,083 (-7%)	0mo	$305,290	$147	84
16810 Old Wagon Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+2%)	1mo	$313,990	$138	79
16855 Spotted Oak Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+2%)	1mo	$279,990	$123	77
16339 Mesquite Field Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,370 (+6%)	1mo	$328,990	$139	74
28918 Rustic Robin Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,410 (+8%)	1mo	$322,990	$134	70
16847 Spotted Oak Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,066 (-8%)	0mo	$259,440	$126	67
27238 Wheat Falls Ln	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+14%)	1mo	$311,390	$123	67
16839 Old Wagon Way	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,066 (-8%)	1mo	$234,990	$114	66
28534 Golden Hay Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,066 (-8%)	0mo	$248,000	$120	66
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-15%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	64
17318 Teddy Trace Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,244 (+0%)	0mo	$342,100	$152	64
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-14%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-80,737
• Equity at exit: $46,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-126,901
• Equity at exit: $27,029

Cash invested: $87,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,689/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $260,031

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-255	+0% $-363	+5% $-471	+10% $-579
Rent	-10% $-553	-5% $-458	+0% $-363	+5% $-268	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-206	-0.5pp $-284	base $-363	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,152
• Closing costs: $9,378
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	45d	1	0.23mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	45d	1	0.36mi
29023 Pearl Barley Way Unit 3656 Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,300	$0.96	26d	1	0.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 699-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   price $280,000 699-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   price $294,990 699-char remark
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $300,590 Active 699-char remark
5. 2026-04-24
   historical
6. 2026-04-20
   price $300,590
7. 2026-04-09
   price $309,740
8. 2026-03-25
   price $305,040
9. 2026-03-23
   price $264,040
10. 2026-03-21
    price $300,000
11. 2026-03-16
    price $315,690
12. 2026-03-16
    listed $332,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,511
• − Property taxes: −$4,689
• − Insurance: −$1,563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,094
• Taxable loss: −$9,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,364
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern two-story home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. Upgrades to the exterior and kitchen could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers.
• Both Installing smart home technology — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating the landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers. ↑
• Both Installing smart home technology — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $300,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $300,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $309,740 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $305,040 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $264,040 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $315,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $332,990 HARMLS