Alpine Plan · Lytle, TX 78052

$232,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 999 sqft · SingleFamily · 850 Days on market

$33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 849 days

🏗️ New construction. The $232,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $249,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 850 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,205 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 850 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,900
• List price: $232,900
• Delta: -6.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16144 Farmer	0.14mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	6mo	$244,900	$245	89
16120 Farmer	0.22mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	2mo	$229,900	$230	88
16108 Farmer	0.22mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	3mo	$229,900	$230	87
16024 Imes Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	12mo	$237,900	$238	84
16025 Stratford Cv	0.31mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	3mo	$248,900	$249	83
16009 Imes Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	15mo	$244,900	$245	83
16028 Stratford Cv	0.26mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	6mo	$250,900	$251	83
16025 Cabana Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	14mo	$237,900	$238	82
16012 Imes Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	14mo	$244,900	$245	82
16025 Imes Way	0.10mi	2/2.0	999 (0%)	16mo	$234,900	$235	82
14657 Main St	0.71mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$249	38
19919 Huckleberry	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	853 (-15%)	9mo	$194,900	$228	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $53,483
• Equity at exit: $161,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $174,043
• Equity at exit: $295,529

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $198,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-266	+0% $-352	+5% $-439	+10% $-525
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-423	+0% $-352	+5% $-282	+10% $-211
Rate	-1.0pp $-226	-0.5pp $-289	base $-352	+0.5pp $-417	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$1,885	$1.21	0d	1	0.01mi
14838 Lytle Somerset Rd Lytle, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	45d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,900 Active 850 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,900 Active 849 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,900 Active 847 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,900 Active 846 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,900 Active 845 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,900 Active 844 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,900 Active 843 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,900 Active 842 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $232,900 Active 841 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $232,900 Active 838 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,900 Active 837 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,900 Active 836 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $232,900 Active 834 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,900 Active 832 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,900 Active 831 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,900 Active 830 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,900 Active 829 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    price $232,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

19. 2026-02-10
    price $229,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

20. 2025-10-01
    price $248,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

21. 2025-07-11
    price $245,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

22. 2025-07-01
    price $250,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

23. 2025-04-01
    price $247,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

24. 2025-01-03
    price $244,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

25. 2024-09-30
    price $241,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

26. 2024-06-07
    price $238,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

27. 2024-04-11
    price $235,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

28. 2024-03-13
    price $224,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

29. 2024-02-23
    listed $249,900 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $232,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $229,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $248,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $245,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $250,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $247,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $244,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $241,900 Zillow
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $238,900 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $235,900 Zillow
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $224,900 Zillow
• 2024-02-23 Listed $249,900 Zillow