954 NE Robinson Rd - Tract #1 Rd · Morven, GA 31625

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition 1.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the open floor plan in front of the fireplace. 1,960 sq ft, 4 bedroom / 2 bath home in a quaint, quiet and peaceful setting on 1.4 acres of land in Barney, GA.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 1.4 acres of land
• Quaint setting

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE
• 1.4 ACRES OF LAND
• QUAINT SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water (private); Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Residential mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Patio; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher included; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#528 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Brooks County (rural): math 15% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #160 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Brooks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Brooks County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $66,112
• Equity at exit: $100,295

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $182,446
• Equity at exit: $196,959

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31625

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $135,000 Active 165-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$58
• After-tax cash flow: $2,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and could be replaced
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and could be updated

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value
• Both update kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and could be updated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooks County
• NCES district ID: 1300540
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $35,963
• Composite: 12.43/100
• National rank: #9628
• State rank: #160 of 174 in GA

Livability — Morven

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #528
• US rank: #23654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 972

Population outlook (Brooks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,339 people
• By 2030: 13,497 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 11,787 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 10,100 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 6,878 · -52.0%
• By 2100: 5,056 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Black 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% German 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Brooks

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.8) · D 36.5% · R 63.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.8 2020: R+20.7 2016: R+18.7 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.75%
• Current HPI: 215.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 SGMLS