630 Kunkle Rd · Harveys Lake, PA 18618

$200,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5BR, 2BA home on 1.5 acres near Harvey's Lake and Dallas. Offers over 2,400 sq. ft. , attached garage, and scenic mountain views. Needs some updates--perfect for buyers seeking a renovation project or investment opportunity. Convenient to Route 309 and local amenities.

Key facts

• Near harveys lake
• 2.5 acres
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• SCENIC MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEAR HARVEYS LAKE
• CONVENIENT TO ROUTE 309

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.5% in Harveys Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#923 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dallas SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #97 of 539 in PA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $200k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $19,764
• Equity at exit: $75,837

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $75,412
• Equity at exit: $106,912

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18618

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,424/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,794

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $196	+0% $139	+5% $83	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $61	+0% $139	+5% $217	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $190	base $139	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $200,000
3. 2026-03-02
   price $239,900
4. 2025-10-15
   listed $259,900 Active
5. 2008-01-16
   soldstatus $127,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,424 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,424 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,424
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas SD
• NCES district ID: 4207200
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,760
• Composite: 48.4/100
• National rank: #2138
• State rank: #97 of 539 in PA

Livability — Harveys Lake

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #9992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,583
• Population (ZIP): 3,583

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Scotch-Irish 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Current HPI: 314.2169
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+57.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $200,000 LCAR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $239,900 LCAR
• 2025-10-15 Listed $259,900 LCAR
• 2008-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $127,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,424 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.