37537 Pinata Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$136,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1986 4,338 sqft lot Est $119k · 14% over $142/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

JUST REDUCED!! in Spanish Trails West, a Five Star community, where the HOA is $142 a month, and you get Internet, TV, Lawn Mowed, Heated Pool, Club House and a friendly, busy community. This 1988 home has 1,008 sq. ft. and updated. To start, the roof was replaced in 2023, the kitchen has added cabinets, all the appliances are new including a side-by-side refrigerator with a bottom freezer, smooth top stove. dishwasher, and microwave. The floors are vinyl plank for easy care and waterproof. Newer washer & dryer moved inside but hidden behind doors, new insulated windows, and the master bathroom has been done over with a culture marble countertop, plus a redone walk-in shower with a bu

Key facts

• Added cabinets
• New appliances
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ADDED CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• NEW INSULATED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $142; total annual fees $1,704; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA — monthly fee $142 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, private road, trash); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, basketball court, racquetball, tennis courts, dog park, sidewalks, street lights; Buyer/association approval required; Deed restrictions; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats OK, dogs OK, breed restrictions, number limit); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace / Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Shed(s); Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Insulated windows; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Electric water heater; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,840 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.72%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,944
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37452 Attica Ave	0.18mi	2/1.5	1,028 (+2%)	5mo	$94,000	$91	82
37648 Campo Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0	972 (-4%)	11mo	$114,000	$117	77
37817 Granada Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	4mo	$125,000	$118	75
7117 EL Rancho Way #367	0.12mi	2/2.0	896 (-11%)	4mo	$118,000	$132	73
6902 Orlo Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+10%)	2mo	$75,000	$68	71
37838 Granada Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	9mo	$139,000	$132	70
37820 Madeira Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	16mo	$139,000	$132	66
7053 EL Conquistador St	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	12mo	$122,000	$116	66
37848 Barcelona Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	13mo	$125,000	$118	66
37832 Mission Hills Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	16mo	$113,000	$107	64
37838 Barcelona Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+12%)	4mo	$136,000	$121	63
7133 EL Matador St	0.23mi	2/2.0	864 (-14%)	11mo	$79,000	$91	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,353
• Equity at exit: $20,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $12,516
• Equity at exit: $11,759

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $136,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	4d	1	0.28mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	0.55mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	0.63mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	1d	34	0.76mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	0.77mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	0.82mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	24d	1	0.82mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	0.84mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.84mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.84mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	1d	142	0.88mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.92mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.96mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	17d	1	1.06mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.07mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	4d	1	1.15mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	12d	1	1.15mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.38mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	4d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $136,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $136,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $136,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    listed $138,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $596 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$533/yr (+$44/mo · 89.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable income: $2,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$688
• After-tax cash flow: $4,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $596 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.