817 E Stanford Ave · Springfield, IL 62704

$160,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

5,400 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick duplex that has been totally updated from floor to roof. Monthly income $1300. House recently had a fire & is completely gutted out. New buyer can re-do or tear down. Was rented for $800/mo. Renters pay all utilities on duplex. Seller pays for garbage and grass cutting.

Key facts

• Complete remodel
• Two clean units
• 5,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• COMPLETE REMODEL
• TWO CLEAN UNITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $160k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,353
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $30,019
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62704

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,908/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $220	+0% $175	+5% $130	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $113	+0% $175	+5% $237	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $216	base $175	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1213 E Ash St Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,030	$1.09	21d	1	0.92mi
1933 S 2nd St Springfield, IL	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,400	$0.98	44d	1	0.96mi
1726 S 6th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.14mi
1929 E Spruce St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $160,000 Active
3. 2021-12-01
   soldstatus $93,000 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Brick duplex that has been totally updated from floor to roof. Monthly income $1300. House recently had a fire & is completely gutted out. New buyer can re-do or tear down. Was rented for $800/mo. Renters pay all utilities on duplex. Seller pays for garbage and grass cutting.

4. 2021-08-06
   historical
5. 2021-08-06
   historical
6. 2021-05-13
   listed $109,000 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Brick duplex that has been totally updated from floor to roof. Monthly income $1300. House recently had a fire & is completely gutted out. New buyer can re-do or tear down. Was rented for $800/mo. Renters pay all utilities on duplex. Seller pays for garbage and grass cutting.

7. 2010-03-11
   soldstatus $55,000
8. 2010-03-05
   soldstatus $55,000
9. 2009-10-14
   listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,908
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$504
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,046
• Household income: $69,976
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1529.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.79%
• Current HPI: 156.7086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+128.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $160,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-01 Sold (MLS) $93,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-13 Listed $109,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-05 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-14 Listed $69,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,908 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.