36 Reeds Holw · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$525,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · Townhouse · 125 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $273/sqft · at area comps Est $529k · at est. $302/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Upper Floor Unit • 1,929 sq. ft. • 3 Bedrooms • 2 Full Baths • Study • Storage Room - Covered Deck • Private Entry • 1 Car Garage Entry into the AZALEA end unit is via a private two-story foyer. Its large storage room and access to the attached one car garage. Upstairs you can comfortably entertain in the expansive living room and dining area while creating in the beautiful chefs-style kitchen. The private master suite includes a large walk-in closet and luxurious master bath. The third bedroom and a study add even more value and space to your home.

Key facts

• $302 HOA
• Parking
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $526k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.9% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Stillwater Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #238 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 32% FRL); Stillwater Middle School High School (math 55% / reading 62%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($463k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $317,080 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.67%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,208
• List price: $525,900
• Delta: -0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Reed's Holw	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$535,178	$277	98
20 Reed's Holw	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$531,790	$276	97
18 Reed's Holw	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$553,810	$287	97
93 Reed's Holw	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$545,830	$283	96
7 Woodlake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-16%)	0mo	$620,000	$384	65
43 Grace Moore Rd	1.31mi	3/1.5	1,932 (+0%)	1mo	$484,900	$251	62
19 Woodlake Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,170 (+12%)	2mo	$579,000	$267	58
9 Lakepointe Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,320 (+20%)	6mo	$600,000	$259	56
90 Lakepointe Way	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,118 (+10%)	3mo	$672,144	$317	54
58 Lakepointe Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-22%)	4mo	$548,875	$365	54
3 Pine Ridge Rd	1.29mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,914 (-1%)	5mo	$417,000	$218	53
64 Putnam Rd	1.13mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,529 (-21%)	4mo	$300,000	$196	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-159,397
• Equity at exit: $78,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-178,980
• Equity at exit: $45,470

Cash invested: $147,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $525,900 ($273/sqft)
• Median days on market: 142 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,758
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$657 /mo · $7,888/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-1,431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,983

Max offer price $318,768

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,068	-5% $-1,250	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,613	+10% $-1,795
Rent	-10% $-1,682	-5% $-1,557	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,306	+10% $-1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,167	-0.5pp $-1,298	base $-1,431	+0.5pp $-1,568	+1.0pp $-1,706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,475
• Closing costs: $15,777
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Windermere Rd Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.0	2415	$20,000	$8.28	119d	1	0.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 36 Reeds Holw, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $525,900
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $302

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric heating (heat pump)Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family (Spec build)Plan name: AZALEA
• Construction: Living area approximately 1929Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $525,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $525,900 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $525,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $525,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $525,900 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $525,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $525,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $525,900 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $525,900 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $525,900 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $525,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $525,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $525,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $525,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $525,900 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $525,900 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $525,900 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $525,900 Active 101 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $525,900 Active 100 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $525,900 Active 99 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $525,900 Active 98 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $525,900 Active 97 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $525,900 Active 96 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $525,900 Active 95 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $525,900 Active 94 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $525,900 Active 93 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $525,900 Active 92 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $525,900 Active 91 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $525,900 Active 90 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $525,900 Active 89 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $525,900 Active 88 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $525,900 Active 87 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $525,900 Active 86 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $525,900 Active 85 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $525,900 Active 84 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $525,900 Active 83 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $525,900 Active 82 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $525,900 Active 81 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $525,900 Active 80 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $525,900 Active 79 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $525,900 Active 78 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $525,900 Active 77 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $525,900 Active 76 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $525,900 Active 75 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $525,900 Active 74 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $525,900 Active 73 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $525,900 Active 70 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $525,900 Active 69 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $525,900 Active 68 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $525,900 Active 66 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,459
• − Property taxes: −$7,888
• − Insurance: −$2,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,044
• − Management: −$3,044
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$15,299
• Taxable loss: −$26,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,465
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The exterior could benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stillwater Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 High Stillwater Middle School High School C NY #877/1,100 Nat'l #3,934/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628110
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 51.51/100
• National rank: #1721
• State rank: #238 of 590 in NY

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 238,889 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 36 Reeds Holw, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $525,900
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $302

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric heating (heat pump)Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family (Spec build)Plan name: AZALEA
• Construction: Living area approximately 1929Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave