221 W Herndon Ave #49 · Fresno, CA 93650

$112,800

2 bd · 1.75 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

Built 1972 $90/sqft · at area comps Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Rare Find NO Property tax, only $75.00 Per year license fee.That saves you $1,000,00 every year. Remodeled kitchen New granite counter, new stainless steel appliances 5 burner counter top stove, new built in convection oven with rotisserie, new microwave, stainless steel deep under-mount sink, new disposal and faucet. New paint inside and out new deck and step carpet. New floor and ceiling vents new interior door knobs and new locks and new back door. Newer A/C and Furnace great yard with cement walk ways. Theirs a Planter box going up to the front door made by the mobile home factory.

Key facts

• New built in oven
• Remodeled kitchen
• New microwave

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW GRANITE COUNTER
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 5 BURNER COUNTER TOP STOVE
• NEW BUILT IN OVEN
• NEW MICROWAVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.75-bath manufactured listed at $113k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $113k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($780 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $113k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,264 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.60%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,000
• List price: $112,800
• Delta: 1.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 W Herndon Ave #192	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$112,000	$90	94
221 W Herndon Ave #130	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,275 (+2%)	2mo	$119,500	$94	90
221 W Herndon Ave #120	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$110,000	$92	86
221 W Herndon Ave #27	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	1mo	$66,000	$57	81
221 W Herndon Ave #107	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	2mo	$95,000	$82	81
105 Herndon #60	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	0mo	$120,000	$93	80
221 W Herndon Ave #164	0.03mi	2/1.8	1,152 (-8%)	10mo	$85,000	$74	78
221 W Herndon Ave #148	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	13mo	$70,000	$52	76
221 W Herndon Ave #166	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	9mo	$129,900	$113	75
221 W Herndon Ave #41	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$100,000	$74	72
221 W Herndon Ave #184	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$69,900	$52	71
221 W Herndon #125	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	7mo	$59,000	$55	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $106,056
• Equity at exit: $101,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.78×
• Total profit: $277,306
• Equity at exit: $219,146

Cash invested: $31,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$592
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$141 /mo · $1,692/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $987

Max offer price $112,800

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $739	+0% $700	+5% $661	+10% $622
Rent	-10% $552	-5% $626	+0% $700	+5% $774	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $729	base $700	+0.5pp $671	+1.0pp $641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,200
• Closing costs: $3,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 W Sierra Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1291	$2,500	$1.94	16d	1	0.51mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	2d	2	0.81mi
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	0.89mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	3d	1	0.91mi
6052 N College Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	44d	1	0.91mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.96mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	3d	1	0.96mi
445 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,820	$2.15	2d	10	1.04mi
445 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	3d	2	1.10mi
1249 W Spruce Ave Unit 1249 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,975	$1.58	11d	1	1.10mi
7579 N Angus St Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	24d	1	1.11mi
7087 N Thorne Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$1,495	$1.90	2d	1	1.11mi
6515 N Orchard St Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	16d	1	1.12mi
7580 N Angus St Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	44d	1	1.14mi
1271 W Spruce Ave Unit 1271 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,850	$1.48	11d	1	1.14mi
7166 N Fruit Ave #179 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	884	$1,625	$1.84	2d	1	1.19mi
7722 N Angus St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,575	$1.92	3d	1	1.27mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$1,974	$1.83	2d	21	1.29mi
5669 N Fresno St Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,537	$1.68	2d	10	1.29mi
584 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,425	$1.58	44d	1	1.31mi
485 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,452	$1.60	3d	8	1.33mi
7625 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,625	$2.20	2d	2	1.36mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	44d	1	1.39mi
5721 N Callisch Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1393	$1,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,800 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,800 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,800 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,800 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,800 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $112,800 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,800 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,800 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $112,800 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $112,800 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,800 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,800 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,800 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,800 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    status Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    A Rare Find NO Property tax, only $75.00 Per year license fee.That saves you $1,000,00 every year. Remodeled kitchen New granite counter, new stainless steel appliances 5 burner counter top stove, new built in convection oven with rotisserie, new microwave, stainless steel deep under-mount sink, new disposal and faucet. New paint inside and out new deck and step carpet. New floor and ceiling vents new interior door knobs and new locks and new back door. Newer A/C and Furnace great yard with cement walk ways. Theirs a Planter box going up to the front door made by the mobile home factory.

16. 2026-04-06
    historical Pending Accepting Backups 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    A Rare Find NO Property tax, only $75.00 Per year license fee.That saves you $1,000,00 every year. Remodeled kitchen New granite counter, new stainless steel appliances 5 burner counter top stove, new built in convection oven with rotisserie, new microwave, stainless steel deep under-mount sink, new disposal and faucet. New paint inside and out new deck and step carpet. New floor and ceiling vents new interior door knobs and new locks and new back door. Newer A/C and Furnace great yard with cement walk ways. Theirs a Planter box going up to the front door made by the mobile home factory.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $112,800 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    A Rare Find NO Property tax, only $75.00 Per year license fee.That saves you $1,000,00 every year. Remodeled kitchen New granite counter, new stainless steel appliances 5 burner counter top stove, new built in convection oven with rotisserie, new microwave, stainless steel deep under-mount sink, new disposal and faucet. New paint inside and out new deck and step carpet. New floor and ceiling vents new interior door knobs and new locks and new back door. Newer A/C and Furnace great yard with cement walk ways. Theirs a Planter box going up to the front door made by the mobile home factory.

18. 2026-01-03
    listed $119,900 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    A Rare Find NO Property tax, only $75.00 Per year license fee.That saves you $1,000,00 every year. Remodeled kitchen New granite counter, new stainless steel appliances 5 burner counter top stove, new built in convection oven with rotisserie, new microwave, stainless steel deep under-mount sink, new disposal and faucet. New paint inside and out new deck and step carpet. New floor and ceiling vents new interior door knobs and new locks and new back door. Newer A/C and Furnace great yard with cement walk ways. Theirs a Planter box going up to the front door made by the mobile home factory.

19. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus $21,950 Sold 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Great location! close walking distance to River Park and all the shopping and restaurants around it. This park is a 55 plus park. Many amenities available, a great place to walk in for that morning exercise. Covered parking and storage shed.

20. 2017-01-13
    status Pending 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Great location! close walking distance to River Park and all the shopping and restaurants around it. This park is a 55 plus park. Many amenities available, a great place to walk in for that morning exercise. Covered parking and storage shed.

21. 2016-11-07
    listed $21,950 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Great location! close walking distance to River Park and all the shopping and restaurants around it. This park is a 55 plus park. Many amenities available, a great place to walk in for that morning exercise. Covered parking and storage shed.

22. 2009-08-26
    soldstatus $32,000
23. 2009-07-30
    price $34,500
24. 2009-07-30
    historical
25. 2009-07-13
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,319
• − Property taxes: −$1,692
• − Insurance: −$564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − Depreciation: −$3,281
• Taxable income: $7,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,686
• After-tax cash flow: $6,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+252.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $112,800 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $119,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-01-31 Sold (MLS) $21,950 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-01-13 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2016-11-07 Listed $21,950 FRESNOMLS
• 2009-08-26 Sold (MLS) $32,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2009-07-30 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2009-07-30 Price Changed $34,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2009-07-13 Listed $32,000 FRESNOMLS