4 Birch Ct · Estell Manor, NJ 08330

$196,300

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition $140/sqft · 11% below area Est $220k · 11% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Repriced!! Motivated Seller! Welcome to Oaks of Weymouth! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac and backs to a peaceful, tree-lined setting—offering both privacy and a serene atmosphere. Lovingly maintained, the home features major updates completed in 2025, including a brand-new HVAC system and roof, giving you peace of mind for years to come. The shed roof was also replaced just a few years prior. Inside, the spacious kitchen is equipped with Corian countertops and offers plenty of room for a breakfast table or the option to add an island for extra workspace and seating. Just off the kitchen, the utility room has its own side entrance and includes a full-size washer and dryer, along with a convenient work sink—perfect for cleaning up after outdoor projects. The open flow between the dining area and living room creates a flexible space that can easily accommodate additional seating for gatherings and holidays. Step outside to find a large shed with electricity already in place—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The irrigation system control panel is located in the shed, though it has not been used in recent years. With solid updates, functional space, and a tranquil setting, this home is move-in ready and just waiting for your personal touch to make it truly your own.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Brand new roof
• Corian countertops

Tags

• MAJOR UPDATES
• BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CORIAN COUNTERTOPS
• UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• Financial info: Ground rent exists; 1 year of land lease remaining; Total actual rent reported annually: $9,852
• HOA & community: Community pool; Monthly land lease ($579)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured property / modular/manufactured construction; Senior community (55+); Land lease ownership interest
• Construction: Manufactured construction materials; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Community pool; Ground rent exists

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including 2 full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (90% forced air); Forced air; Natural gas heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement; 2+ access exits
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.1% in Estell Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#414 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Weymouth Township School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #351 of 612 in NJ (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $190,411 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.73%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,311
• List price: $196,300
• Delta: -10.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Cedar Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	12mo	$199,000	$147	70
8 Walnut Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-14%)	18mo	$212,000	$177	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $138,237
• Equity at exit: $176,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.96×
• Total profit: $382,549
• Equity at exit: $381,368

Cash invested: $54,964 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,029
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,944/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $196,300

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $627	-5% $559	+0% $491	+5% $423	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $307	-5% $399	+0% $491	+5% $584	+10% $676
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $541	base $491	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,075
• Closing costs: $5,889
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $196,300 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,300 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,300 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,300 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $196,300 Active 47 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1352 chars)

   Repriced!! Motivated Seller! Welcome to Oaks of Weymouth! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac and backs to a peaceful, tree-lined setting—offering both privacy and a serene atmosphere. Lovingly maintained, the home features major updates completed in 2025, including a brand-new HVAC system and roof, giving you peace of mind for years to come. The shed roof was also replaced just a few years prior. Inside, the spacious kitchen is equipped with Corian countertops and offers plenty of room for a breakfast table or the option to add an island for extra workspace and seating. Just off the kitchen, the utility room has its own side entrance and includes a full-size washer and dryer, along with a convenient work sink—perfect for cleaning up after outdoor projects. The open flow between the dining area and living room creates a flexible space that can easily accommodate additional seating for gatherings and holidays. Step outside to find a large shed with electricity already in place—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The irrigation system control panel is located in the shed, though it has not been used in recent years. With solid updates, functional space, and a tranquil setting, this home is move-in ready and just waiting for your personal touch to make it truly your own.

6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $219,000 Active 1322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1352 chars)

    Repriced!! Motivated Seller! Welcome to Oaks of Weymouth! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac and backs to a peaceful, tree-lined setting—offering both privacy and a serene atmosphere. Lovingly maintained, the home features major updates completed in 2025, including a brand-new HVAC system and roof, giving you peace of mind for years to come. The shed roof was also replaced just a few years prior. Inside, the spacious kitchen is equipped with Corian countertops and offers plenty of room for a breakfast table or the option to add an island for extra workspace and seating. Just off the kitchen, the utility room has its own side entrance and includes a full-size washer and dryer, along with a convenient work sink—perfect for cleaning up after outdoor projects. The open flow between the dining area and living room creates a flexible space that can easily accommodate additional seating for gatherings and holidays. Step outside to find a large shed with electricity already in place—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The irrigation system control panel is located in the shed, though it has not been used in recent years. With solid updates, functional space, and a tranquil setting, this home is move-in ready and just waiting for your personal touch to make it truly your own.

19. 2026-04-29
    listed $219,000 Active 1320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1352 chars)

    Repriced!! Motivated Seller! Welcome to Oaks of Weymouth! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac and backs to a peaceful, tree-lined setting—offering both privacy and a serene atmosphere. Lovingly maintained, the home features major updates completed in 2025, including a brand-new HVAC system and roof, giving you peace of mind for years to come. The shed roof was also replaced just a few years prior. Inside, the spacious kitchen is equipped with Corian countertops and offers plenty of room for a breakfast table or the option to add an island for extra workspace and seating. Just off the kitchen, the utility room has its own side entrance and includes a full-size washer and dryer, along with a convenient work sink—perfect for cleaning up after outdoor projects. The open flow between the dining area and living room creates a flexible space that can easily accommodate additional seating for gatherings and holidays. Step outside to find a large shed with electricity already in place—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. The irrigation system control panel is located in the shed, though it has not been used in recent years. With solid updates, functional space, and a tranquil setting, this home is move-in ready and just waiting for your personal touch to make it truly your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,944
• − Insurance: −$982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − Depreciation: −$5,711
• Taxable income: $2,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $5,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is in good condition with minor repairs needed in the kitchen. It offers a good return on investment with updates that would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen countertops — Need cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen countertops · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen countertops — New countertops improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weymouth Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3417850
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,908
• Composite: 47.23/100
• National rank: #5081
• State rank: #351 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Estell Manor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #14535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 1,269
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $196,300 SJSRMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $196,300 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $219,000 SJSRMLS