11014 Tamarix Ave · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1973 5,054 sqft lot Est $264k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REO: Vacant and ready to show

Key facts

• Screened patios
• Centrally located
• No flood zone

Tags

• NO HOA
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• SCREENED PATIOS
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.12 acre (approx. 470 m²); Building area total 2,035 sq ft; Total rooms: 5; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with 14x22 dimensions
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; Faces west; R4 zoning
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Living area 1,426 sq ft
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($722/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,872/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $209k implies a 437% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,219 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,810
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11019 Basquin Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+1%)	2mo	$217,500	$151	95
11114 White Oak Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (0%)	2mo	$220,000	$154	89
11200 Tamarix Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,306 (-8%)	1mo	$187,000	$143	73
11241 Yewtree Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-8%)	2mo	$245,000	$188	71
10310 Amadeus Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,426 (0%)	1mo	$280,000	$196	66
8341 Duval Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-0%)	2mo	$247,000	$174	63
11201 Island Pine Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+3%)	2mo	$260,000	$177	62
7538 Gulf Highlands Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-8%)	0mo	$269,900	$206	56
8324 Winding Wood Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (+4%)	0mo	$275,000	$185	54
7924 Talisman Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,595 (+12%)	2mo	$322,000	$202	52
7901 Bell Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-8%)	0mo	$240,000	$183	47
7325 Neva Ln	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (-10%)	2mo	$246,000	$191	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-33,210
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-36,564
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,830/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $119	+0% $60	+5% $1	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-14	+0% $60	+5% $134	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $113	base $60	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7835 Arbordale Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$1,850	$1.11	25d	1	0.06mi
7804 Birchwood Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,750	$1.16	25d	1	0.12mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.13mi
7724 Tyson Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	0d	1	0.18mi
8015 San Fernando Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,400	$1.57	25d	1	0.19mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	0.22mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	14d	1	0.24mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	0.27mi
10801 Oldham Rd Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	3d	1	0.28mi
8024 Las Cruces Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	0.30mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	25d	1	0.30mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	6d	1	0.30mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	0.34mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	25d	1	0.36mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	0.38mi
10632 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,583	$1.33	25d	1	0.40mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.44mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.45mi
10629 Cymbid Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	25d	1	0.46mi
7808 Talisman Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1063	$2,100	$1.98	25d	1	0.47mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.48mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.48mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.52mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.52mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	5d	1	0.52mi
7839 Canna Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,450	$1.32	12d	1	0.53mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	12d	1	0.54mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	14d	1	0.54mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	14d	1	0.55mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	0.55mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	0.55mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	25d	1	0.56mi
10502 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	25d	1	0.57mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	14d	1	0.60mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.65mi
7416 Star Dust Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.67mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.71mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.71mi
7202 Palisade Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,100	$0.84	25d	1	0.74mi
10303 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,950	$1.85	25d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   status Active
3. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-23
   status Active
5. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-18
   listed $209,000 Active
7. 2011-11-14
   soldstatus $38,900 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   REO: Vacant and ready to show

8. 2011-08-04
   listed $38,900 29-char remark

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   REO: Vacant and ready to show

9. 2011-08-04
   historical

   Show marketing remark (29 chars)

   REO: Vacant and ready to show

10. 2011-07-19
    listed $38,900
11. 2011-07-01
    historical
12. 2011-04-15
    listed $39,900
13. 1990-08-01
    soldstatus $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,830 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,830 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,830
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+318.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-14 Sold (MLS) $38,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-04 Listed $38,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-19 Listed $38,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-15 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,830 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.