2025 Bobby Ashcraft Dr · Lindale, TX 75771

$259,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,606 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Beautiful single story! Four bedrooms, two full baths with covered patio and open floor plan. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and so much more! Nestled amidst the serene beauty of East Texas, The Reserve at Timber Creek offers a tranquil escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Enjoy the peacefulness of nature while still being within easy reach of local amenities. Discover a community that prioritizes a relaxed lifestyle. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make The Reserve at Timber Creek your new home. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Island kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lindale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#52 in TX, #2,100 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindale ISD (town): math 71% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #20 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,415 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,325
• List price: $259,490
• Delta: -2.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2025 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,606 (0%)	1mo	$259,490	$162	99
2049 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+0%)	0mo	$256,490	$160	97
6013 Freedom Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+0%)	1mo	$267,660	$167	96
2005 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,738 (+8%)	2mo	$279,990	$161	82
16310 Crossing Cir	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,645 (+2%)	5mo	$317,000	$193	75
2045 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	1mo	$253,295	$179	72
6021 Freedom Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	2mo	$257,045	$182	70
2076 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	1mo	$261,645	$185	68
2069 Bobby Ashcraft Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-12%)	4mo	$262,990	$186	67
15630 Brittain Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,453 (-10%)	10mo	$299,900	$206	61
16513 Crossing Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+6%)	4mo	$307,700	$181	60
16509 Crossing Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,819 (+13%)	8mo	$369,900	$203	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-56,785
• Equity at exit: $38,691

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-68,259
• Equity at exit: $22,436

Cash invested: $72,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75771

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,892/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $225,876

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-143	+0% $-232	+5% $-322	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-313	+0% $-232	+5% $-152	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-166	base $-232	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,872
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Garden Ln Lindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,250	$1.40	44d	1	0.63mi
16131 Rolling Meadows Dr Lindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	14d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   New! Beautiful single story! Four bedrooms, two full baths with covered patio and open floor plan. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and so much more! Nestled amidst the serene beauty of East Texas, The Reserve at Timber Creek offers a tranquil escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Enjoy the peacefulness of nature while still being within easy reach of local amenities. Discover a community that prioritizes a relaxed lifestyle. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make The Reserve at Timber Creek your new home. Schedule a tour today!

2. 2026-04-22
   price $259,490 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   New! Beautiful single story! Four bedrooms, two full baths with covered patio and open floor plan. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and so much more! Nestled amidst the serene beauty of East Texas, The Reserve at Timber Creek offers a tranquil escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Enjoy the peacefulness of nature while still being within easy reach of local amenities. Discover a community that prioritizes a relaxed lifestyle. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make The Reserve at Timber Creek your new home. Schedule a tour today!

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $276,490 Active 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   New! Beautiful single story! Four bedrooms, two full baths with covered patio and open floor plan. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and so much more! Nestled amidst the serene beauty of East Texas, The Reserve at Timber Creek offers a tranquil escape from the hustle and bustle of city life. Enjoy the peacefulness of nature while still being within easy reach of local amenities. Discover a community that prioritizes a relaxed lifestyle. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make The Reserve at Timber Creek your new home. Schedule a tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,535
• − Property taxes: −$3,892
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$7,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827510
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,325
• Composite: 58.85/100
• National rank: #974
• State rank: #20 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lindale

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #2100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 21,238
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,238
• Household income: $93,462
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 166.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.40%
• Current HPI: 200.187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $259,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $276,490 NTREIS