510 W Maple St · Nocona, TX 76255

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2010 0.50 ac lot Est $84k · at est. ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to historical Nocona! Very well kept home on large corner lot. Covered porch, big back yard, loads of storage, fresh paint and new carpet within the last year. Move in ready! Buyer & buyer's agent is responsible to verify everything pertaining to this property, information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Key facts

• Shed
• Carport
• Large living room

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CARPORT
• SHED
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SEPARATE NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.9% in Nocona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nocona ISD (town): math 44% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #427 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nocona El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 366 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.24%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,224
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 W Maple St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$47	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $10,621
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $40,925
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76255

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,728/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $85,000 Active
3. 2020-02-10
   soldstatus
4. 2020-02-03
   soldstatus Sold 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Come home to historical Nocona! Very well kept home on large corner lot. Covered porch, big back yard, loads of storage, fresh paint and new carpet within the last year. Move in ready! Buyer & buyer's agent is responsible to verify everything pertaining to this property, information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

5. 2020-01-22
   status Pending 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Come home to historical Nocona! Very well kept home on large corner lot. Covered porch, big back yard, loads of storage, fresh paint and new carpet within the last year. Move in ready! Buyer & buyer's agent is responsible to verify everything pertaining to this property, information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

6. 2020-01-09
   historical Active Option Contract 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Come home to historical Nocona! Very well kept home on large corner lot. Covered porch, big back yard, loads of storage, fresh paint and new carpet within the last year. Move in ready! Buyer & buyer's agent is responsible to verify everything pertaining to this property, information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

7. 2019-10-25
   listed $115,000 Active 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Come home to historical Nocona! Very well kept home on large corner lot. Covered porch, big back yard, loads of storage, fresh paint and new carpet within the last year. Move in ready! Buyer & buyer's agent is responsible to verify everything pertaining to this property, information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

8. 2019-01-23
   soldstatus Sold 131-char remark

   Show marketing remark (131 chars)

   Move in Ready Home on Corner lot is Downtown Nocona. This home has fresh paint, new carpet, 2 car carport and sits on a corner lot.

9. 2019-01-02
   status Pending 131-char remark

   Show marketing remark (131 chars)

   Move in Ready Home on Corner lot is Downtown Nocona. This home has fresh paint, new carpet, 2 car carport and sits on a corner lot.

10. 2018-12-05
    price $99,900 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Move in Ready Home on Corner lot is Downtown Nocona. This home has fresh paint, new carpet, 2 car carport and sits on a corner lot.

11. 2018-11-16
    price $100,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Move in Ready Home on Corner lot is Downtown Nocona. This home has fresh paint, new carpet, 2 car carport and sits on a corner lot.

12. 2018-09-10
    listed $115,000 Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Move in Ready Home on Corner lot is Downtown Nocona. This home has fresh paint, new carpet, 2 car carport and sits on a corner lot.

13. 2018-08-11
    historical
14. 2018-06-08
    price $125,000
15. 2018-04-05
    listed $135,000 Active
16. 2018-02-16
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2018-01-29
    status Pending
18. 2017-12-29
    listed $65,000 Active
19. 2017-04-06
    historical
20. 2016-11-20
    listed $82,750 Active
21. 2016-06-10
    historical
22. 2015-10-19
    listed $120,000 Active
23. 2012-01-27
    soldstatus
24. 2011-05-04
    soldstatus
25. 2002-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,728 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,728 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,728
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $3,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nocona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,890
• Composite: 33.79/100
• National rank: #5364
• State rank: #427 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nocona

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocona, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,725

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.13%
• Current HPI: 183.6308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2020-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-01-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-01-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2019-10-25 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2019-01-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-01-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-12-05 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2018-11-16 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2018-09-10 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-06-08 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2018-04-05 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2018-02-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-01-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-12-29 Listed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2017-04-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-11-20 Listed $82,750 NTREIS
• 2016-06-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-10-19 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2012-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,728 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.