311 Lake Mendocino Dr #10 · Ukiah, CA 95482

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Manufactured · 235 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $161/sqft · 147% above area ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a newer home near Lake Mendocino? This 2023 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is within walking distance to the lake and offers space to garden and entertain. Enjoy comfortable living with an open layout and washer and dryer hook ups ready and waiting for you! Buscas una casa mas nueva cerca del Lago Mendocino? Esta casa movil del 2023 de 2 recamaras y 1 bano esta a poca distancia del lago y cuenta con espacio para su jardin y disfrutar con la familia. Ofrece un diseno comodo, conexion para la lavadora y secadora, lista para mudarse!

Key facts

• Space to entertain
• Near lake mendocino
• Space to garden

Tags

• NEAR LAKE MENDOCINO
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE LAKE
• SPACE TO GARDEN
• SPACE TO ENTERTAIN
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOK UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.0% in Ukiah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#425 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime D-.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.59%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,000
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 147.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Lake Mendocino Dr #12	0.00mi	2/1.0	594 (-4%)	12mo	$105,000	$177	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $34,543
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $112,419
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95482

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,357/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $853

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    price $99,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Looking for a newer home near Lake Mendocino? This 2023 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is within walking distance to the lake and offers space to garden and entertain. Enjoy comfortable living with an open layout and washer and dryer hook ups ready and waiting for you! Buscas una casa mas nueva cerca del Lago Mendocino? Esta casa movil del 2023 de 2 recamaras y 1 bano esta a poca distancia del lago y cuenta con espacio para su jardin y disfrutar con la familia. Ofrece un diseno comodo, conexion para la lavadora y secadora, lista para mudarse!

18. 2025-10-28
    listed $119,999 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Looking for a newer home near Lake Mendocino? This 2023 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is within walking distance to the lake and offers space to garden and entertain. Enjoy comfortable living with an open layout and washer and dryer hook ups ready and waiting for you! Buscas una casa mas nueva cerca del Lago Mendocino? Esta casa movil del 2023 de 2 recamaras y 1 bano esta a poca distancia del lago y cuenta con espacio para su jardin y disfrutar con la familia. Ofrece un diseno comodo, conexion para la lavadora y secadora, lista para mudarse!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,357
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,760
• After-tax cash flow: $6,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2023 manufactured home is in good condition with a clean exterior and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase the home's value.
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and increase the home's value.
• Both Install new windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained garden and landscaping can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Install new windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained garden and landscaping can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ukiah Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640300
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,865
• Composite: 29.21/100
• National rank: #11858
• State rank: #1018 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ukiah

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #14442

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mendocino County · 33,164 people
• City population: 33,164
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,164
• Household income: $69,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1349.0

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.34%
• Current HPI: 164.6978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $99,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $119,999 BAREIS