520 Pine Ave #5 · Goleta, CA 93117

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 442 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Built 2024 871 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Space Rent to buyer: 539.65/month. This is not to be missed. Imagine waking up each day and going to and from the beach within 2 miles, with ocean breezes & endless sunshine in beautiful Goleta, Ca. This charming manufactured home offers the perfect balance of affordability, comfort, & convenience. Within minutes, you'll find yourself enjoying local restaurants, boutique shopping, & everyday essentials--all close to home. This is a senior park 55+ which allows a companion resident 45+years of age. Designed with simplicity & comfort in mind, this home is ideal for those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle without compromising on location. Whether you're looki

Key facts

• Washer dryer nook
• Local restaurants
• Boutique shopping

Tags

• LOCAL RESTAURANTS
• BOUTIQUE SHOPPING
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• WASHER DRYER NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association exists; association fees include property management; Pets allowed with limitations

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Metered water
• Home design: Single-story; Outside stairs; Manufactured home (CAVCO), approximately 14' x 40'
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Other foundation; Property in excellent condition; Part of a larger property with multiple buildings (50 buildings on site)
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Level lot; Near public transit; Mountain and partial/filtered views

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range; Gas Stove
• Bedrooms: Family Room 2
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Blinds; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Gas hookup for laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.04%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $56,696
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $203,287
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93117

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $643/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,608

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,378	-5% $1,317	+0% $1,256	+5% $1,195	+10% $1,134
Rent	-10% $1,003	-5% $1,130	+0% $1,256	+5% $1,382	+10% $1,509
Rate	-1.0pp $1,364	-0.5pp $1,311	base $1,256	+0.5pp $1,200	+1.0pp $1,144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $215,000
18. 2026-03-15
    price $249,000
19. 2026-03-03
    status Active
20. 2026-02-28
    historical Contingent
21. 2026-02-22
    status Active
22. 2025-10-28
    historical
23. 2025-10-28
    price $260,000
24. 2025-09-17
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$991/yr (+$83/mo · 154.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$643
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,070
• − Management: −$3,070
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $12,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,934
• After-tax cash flow: $12,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goleta Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,375
• Composite: 56.2/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #195 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Goleta

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #1510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goleta, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 52,934
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,934
• Household income: $90,037
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4402.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1327.27%
• Current HPI: 301.0456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.49%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $215,000 SBMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $249,000 SBMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2026-02-28 Contingent — SBMLS
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $260,000 SBMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $250,000 SBMLS