5034 Boca Chica Blvd · Brownsville, TX 78521

$97,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single wide in 55+ gated community. Rent is $390 per month , garbage & amp; lawn care included, water, gas & amp; electric you pay.

Key facts

• Built 2008
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2008
• Construction: Living area approximately 672
• Exterior features: Located in the Southmost subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,405
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $41,409
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,196/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4650 Bowie Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$854	$0.89	43d	1	0.43mi
765 Billy Mitchell Blvd Ste 11 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	21d	1	0.60mi
824 S Central Ave Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	43d	1	0.81mi
1010 Apollo Ave Unit 13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	43d	1	0.85mi
1898 Morningside Rd Unit 4 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	756	$800	$1.06	43d	1	1.21mi
224 Morningside Rd Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	13d	1	1.22mi
3744 Boca Chica Blvd Unit 100F Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.30mi
1456 N Minnesota Ave Apt 8 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	1.32mi
50 Galonsky St Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $97,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $19,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $19,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $19,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $19,000 Active 133-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$579/yr (+$48/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,196
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$158
• After-tax cash flow: $2,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+410.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $97,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-16 Listed $19,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,196 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.