5040 County Road 628 · Fisk, MO 63940

$73,800

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Other public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2004 0.42 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover this delightful 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage tucked away at the end of a quiet road. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, stunning sunsets, and brand-new appliances—all at an unbeatable price. Full of charm and perfect for anyone seeking a cozy, budget-friendly home.

Key facts

• Brand-new appliances
• 0.42 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($379/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($760 rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#380 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Twin Rivers R-X (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #250 of 324 in MO (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fisk Elementary (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #842 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 345 students, 89% FRL); Twin Rivers High (math 5% / reading 52%, grade F, #409 of 521 statewide, top 79%, 249 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 57% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($510 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,944 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $10,951
• Equity at exit: $33,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $36,240
• Equity at exit: $51,140

Cash invested: $20,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63940

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$387
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $307/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$160
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $73,800

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,450
• Closing costs: $2,214
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-02
   price $73,800
3. 2026-01-07
   price $76,700
4. 2025-12-01
   price $78,900
5. 2025-10-24
   price $79,900
6. 2025-10-13
   listed $84,900 Active
7. 2018-12-31
   soldstatus
8. 2009-10-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 132.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,134
• − Property taxes: −$307
• − Insurance: −$1,871
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$729
• − Management: −$729
• − Depreciation: −$2,147
• Taxable loss: −$801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$192
• After-tax cash flow: $572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers R-X
• NCES district ID: 2930520
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,037
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7037
• State rank: #250 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fisk

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #16726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,501

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $73,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $76,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $78,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Listed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.