6616 Capital #81 · Sacramento, CA 95828

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1971 $69/sqft · 21% below area Est $120k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller will cover the first 2 months of space rent! Charming 2-bed, 2-bath home on a corner lot near the clubhouse in Capital Estates Park. The home offers open views, a spacious yard, and a flexible layout with both a living room and family room featuring new carpet. The kitchen includes updated painted cabinets and laminate flooring, and the home provides generous bedrooms and indoor laundry. Outside you'll find a semi-private fenced yard with covered wood deck and fire pit, ideal for relaxing evenings or entertaining. Capital Estates is an all-age gated community with 24/7 security, pool, basketball court, putting green, and large green areas. Space rent $975. Park approval required b

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open views
• New carpet

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• NEW CARPET
• UPDATED PAINTED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.45%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -20.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6311 Election Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	12mo	$135,000	$100	84
6827 Capital Cir #203	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	4mo	$81,000	$56	82
6719 Representative Way #166	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	6mo	$140,000	$97	82
6713 Representative Way #169	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	8mo	$109,000	$76	80
6205 Presidential Ln #135	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,254 (-8%)	16mo	$75,000	$60	71
6307 State Ln #90	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	12mo	$170,000	$136	70
6815 Capital Cir #209	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	18mo	$118,900	$83	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $53,516
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $118,607
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $704

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,237	-5% $1,210	+0% $1,183	+5% $1,157	+10% $1,130
Rent	-10% $1,010	-5% $1,096	+0% $1,183	+5% $1,270	+10% $1,357
Rate	-1.0pp $1,231	-0.5pp $1,208	base $1,183	+0.5pp $1,159	+1.0pp $1,134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6824 Mangosteen Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,245	$1.60	8d	1	0.16mi
6475 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	988	$2,600	$2.63	20d	1	0.35mi
6470 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,845	$2.16	44d	2	0.42mi
6519 Prentiss Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,300	$2.24	13d	1	0.64mi
7252 Florin Mall Dr Unit 7252 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	44d	1	0.87mi
5934 69th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,995	$1.83	4d	1	0.92mi
7283 Florin Mall Dr #14 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	902	$1,675	$1.86	44d	1	0.93mi
7140 Chris Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1248	$2,300	$1.84	44d	1	0.95mi
4911 50th Ave Unit 11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	875	$1,660	$1.90	24d	1	0.98mi
5500 38th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	44d	1	1.08mi
6053 36th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1166	$2,600	$2.23	44d	1	1.12mi
4913 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	44d	1	1.13mi
5834 55th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1027	$2,100	$2.04	17d	1	1.14mi
5885 Wilkinson St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,399	$1.75	44d	1	1.26mi
5936 Clover Manor Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,400	$1.78	44d	1	1.28mi
5905 Clover Manor Way Unit 5907 CLOVER Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	3d	1	1.31mi
5544 33rd Ave Unit NA Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	8d	1	1.35mi
5988 Sampson Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1025	$2,125	$2.07	24d	1	1.38mi
4812 D Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1505	$2,295	$1.52	24d	1	1.39mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	8d	1	1.40mi
7236 East Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	776	$1,645	$2.12	3d	1	1.40mi
5316 Nelson St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1018	$2,245	$2.21	13d	1	1.42mi
5701 Fruitridge Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,495	$1.71	44d	1	1.44mi
7351 Gigi Pl Unit 7353 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,775	$1.77	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 220.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $13,418
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,220
• After-tax cash flow: $10,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.