6616 Capital #81 · Sacramento, CA 95828

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 156 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1971 Good condition $66/sqft · 21% below area Est $114k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.5

Listing remarks

Seller will cover the first 2 months of space rent! Charming 2-bed, 2-bath home on a corner lot near the clubhouse in Capital Estates Park. The home offers open views, a spacious yard, and a flexible layout with both a living room and family room featuring new carpet. The kitchen includes updated painted cabinets and laminate flooring, and the home provides generous bedrooms and indoor laundry. Outside you'll find a semi-private fenced yard with covered wood deck and fire pit, ideal for relaxing evenings or entertaining. Capital Estates is an all-age gated community with 24/7 security, pool, basketball court, putting green, and large green areas. Space rent $975.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open views
• New carpet

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• NEW CARPET
• UPDATED PAINTED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Will C. Wood Middle (684 students, 90% FRL); Hiram W. Johnson High (1,733 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.46%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,955
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -21.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6300 Election Ln #118	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,279 (-6%)	1mo	$95,000	$74	87
6311 Election Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	82
6827 Capital Cir #203	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	6mo	$81,000	$56	81
6719 Representative Way #166	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	8mo	$140,000	$97	81
6713 Representative Way #169	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	10mo	$109,000	$76	79
6205 Presidential Ln #135	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,254 (-8%)	17mo	$75,000	$60	69
6307 State Ln #90	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	13mo	$170,000	$136	69
6815 Capital Cir #209	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	20mo	$118,900	$83	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $33,087
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $77,130
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $145,000 ($106/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -21.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $879	-5% $853	+0% $828	+5% $802	+10% $777
Rent	-10% $692	-5% $760	+0% $828	+5% $895	+10% $963
Rate	-1.0pp $873	-0.5pp $851	base $828	+0.5pp $804	+1.0pp $781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6824 Mangosteen Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,245	$1.60	57d	1	0.16mi
6776 Jujube Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,195	$1.56	32d	1	0.18mi
6475 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	988	$2,600	$2.63	69d	1	0.35mi
6470 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,845	$2.16	93d	2	0.42mi
6644 Hometown Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$2,259	$2.14	21d	1	0.61mi
5613 50th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,325	$2.11	29d	1	0.63mi
6519 Prentiss Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,300	$2.24	61d	1	0.64mi
7252 Florin Mall Dr Unit 7252 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	93d	1	0.87mi
5934 69th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,850	$1.70	47d	1	0.92mi
7283 Florin Mall Dr #14 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	902	$1,675	$1.86	93d	1	0.93mi
7140 Chris Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1248	$2,300	$1.84	93d	1	0.95mi
4911 50th Ave Unit 11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	875	$1,660	$1.90	73d	1	0.98mi
7809 50th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	888	$2,300	$2.59	42d	1	0.98mi
5500 38th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	93d	1	1.08mi
6053 36th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1166	$2,600	$2.23	93d	1	1.12mi
4913 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	93d	1	1.13mi
5834 55th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1027	$2,100	$2.04	65d	1	1.14mi
6321 35th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1211	$3,000	$2.48	37d	1	1.17mi
6844 Sandrock Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	37d	1	1.18mi
5885 Wilkinson St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,399	$1.75	93d	1	1.26mi
5936 Clover Manor Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,400	$1.78	93d	1	1.28mi
5905 Clover Manor Way Unit 5907 CLOVER Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	21d	1	1.31mi
5544 33rd Ave Unit NA Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	57d	1	1.35mi
5988 Sampson Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1025	$2,125	$2.07	73d	1	1.38mi
4812 D Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1505	$2,295	$1.52	73d	1	1.39mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	57d	1	1.40mi
7236 East Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	776	$1,645	$2.12	36d	1	1.40mi
5316 Nelson St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1018	$2,245	$2.21	61d	1	1.42mi
5701 Fruitridge Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,495	$1.71	93d	1	1.44mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,748	$1.90	9d	5	1.45mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$1,695	$2.37	32d	9	1.45mi
7351 Gigi Pl Unit 7353 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,775	$1.77	73d	1	1.48mi
5307 Esmeralda St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1127	$2,379	$2.11	9d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $89,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $89,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $89,900 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $94,900 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $94,900 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $94,900 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 130 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 129 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $94,900 Active 128 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $94,900 Active 127 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 126 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 124 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $94,900 Active 123 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 122 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 120 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 119 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 118 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 117 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 116 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 115 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 114 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 113 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 111 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 109 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 108 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 105 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $94,900 Active 104 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 103 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 102 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 100 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 99 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 96 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 95 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 94 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 203.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $8,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,152
• After-tax cash flow: $7,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,840–$20,520 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates. It offers a spacious layout, new carpet, and a fenced yard with a covered deck. Painting the exterior and maintaining the HVAC system would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain the HVAC system — Improves air quality and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nicholas Elementary Middle Will C. Wood Middle High Hiram W. Johnson High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,660,763 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

---

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.