6616 Capital #81 · Sacramento, CA 95828

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 203 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1971 Good condition $55/sqft · 34% below area Est $114k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.5

Listing remarks

Seller will cover the first 2 months of space rent! Charming 2-bed, 2-bath home on a corner lot near the clubhouse in Capital Estates Park. The home offers open views, a spacious yard, and a flexible layout with both a living room and family room featuring new carpet. The kitchen includes updated painted cabinets and laminate flooring, and the home provides generous bedrooms and indoor laundry. Outside you'll find a semi-private fenced yard with covered wood deck and fire pit, ideal for relaxing evenings or entertaining. Capital Estates is an all-age gated community with 24/7 security, pool, basketball court, putting green, and large green areas. Space rent $975.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open views
• New carpet

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• NEW CARPET
• UPDATED PAINTED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Will C. Wood Middle (684 students, 90% FRL); Hiram W. Johnson High (1,733 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.05%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,955
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -34.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6300 Election Ln #118	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,279 (-6%)	2mo	$95,000	$74	86
6311 Election Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	15mo	$135,000	$100	81
6827 Capital Cir #203	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	8mo	$81,000	$56	80
6719 Representative Way #166	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	9mo	$140,000	$97	80
6713 Representative Way #169	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	12mo	$109,000	$76	78
6205 Presidential Ln #135	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,254 (-8%)	19mo	$75,000	$60	68
6307 State Ln #90	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	15mo	$170,000	$136	68
6815 Capital Cir #209	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	21mo	$118,900	$83	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $39,718
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $88,537
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $135,000 ($103/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -19.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $935	-5% $913	+0% $892	+5% $871	+10% $850
Rent	-10% $759	-5% $825	+0% $892	+5% $959	+10% $1,026
Rate	-1.0pp $930	-0.5pp $911	base $892	+0.5pp $873	+1.0pp $853

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6824 Mangosteen Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,245	$1.60	103d	1	0.16mi
6776 Jujube Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,195	$1.56	79d	1	0.18mi
6475 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	988	$2,600	$2.63	116d	1	0.35mi
6470 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,820	$1.84	40d	1	0.42mi
6644 Hometown Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$2,259	$2.14	67d	1	0.61mi
5613 50th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,325	$2.11	76d	1	0.63mi
6519 Prentiss Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,300	$2.24	108d	1	0.64mi
7110 Chandler Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,750	$1.69	10d	1	0.69mi
6635 Chandler Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	958	$1,995	$2.08	10d	1	0.72mi
7252 Florin Mall Dr Unit 7252 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	139d	1	0.87mi
5934 69th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,850	$1.70	94d	1	0.92mi
7283 Florin Mall Dr #14 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	902	$1,675	$1.86	139d	1	0.93mi
7140 Chris Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1248	$2,300	$1.84	139d	1	0.95mi
5131 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1193	$2,400	$2.01	40d	1	0.97mi
4911 50th Ave Unit 11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	875	$1,660	$1.90	119d	1	0.98mi
7809 50th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	888	$2,300	$2.59	89d	1	0.98mi
7301 Florin Woods Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$1,550	$2.05	10d	2	1.02mi
5500 38th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	139d	1	1.08mi
6053 36th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1166	$2,600	$2.23	139d	1	1.12mi
4913 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	139d	1	1.13mi
5834 55th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1027	$2,100	$2.04	112d	1	1.14mi
6321 35th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1211	$3,000	$2.48	84d	1	1.17mi
6844 Sandrock Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	84d	1	1.18mi
4705 Candell Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,395	$2.30	4d	1	1.21mi
5885 Wilkinson St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,399	$1.75	139d	1	1.26mi
5936 Clover Manor Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,400	$1.78	139d	1	1.28mi
5905 Clover Manor Way Unit 5907 CLOVER Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	67d	1	1.31mi
7337 Sakura Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	10d	1	1.35mi
5544 33rd Ave Unit NA Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,250	$1.88	103d	1	1.35mi
7436 Della Cir Unit 7436 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	10d	1	1.37mi
5988 Sampson Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1025	$2,125	$2.07	119d	1	1.38mi
4812 D Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1505	$2,295	$1.52	119d	1	1.39mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	103d	1	1.40mi
7236 East Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	965	$1,645	$1.70	5d	1	1.40mi
5316 Nelson St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1018	$2,245	$2.21	108d	1	1.42mi
7240 East Pkwy Apt C12 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	4d	1	1.42mi
7051 Bowling Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,395	$1.54	40d	3	1.43mi
5701 Fruitridge Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,495	$1.71	139d	1	1.44mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$1,695	$2.37	79d	9	1.45mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,775	$2.17	4d	5	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $74,900 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $74,900 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $74,900 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $74,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $74,900 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $74,900 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $84,900 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $84,900 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $84,900 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $84,900 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $84,900 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $84,900 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 182 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 179 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 178 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $84,900 Active 177 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $84,900 Active 176 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $84,900 Active 175 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $84,900 Active 174 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $84,900 Active 173 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $84,900 Active 172 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $84,900 Active 171 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $84,900 Active 170 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $84,900 Active 169 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $84,900 Active 168 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $84,900 Active 167 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    pricedays on market $84,900 Active 166 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $89,900 Active 165 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $89,900 Active 164 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $89,900 Active 163 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $89,900 Active 162 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $89,900 Active 161 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $89,900 Active 160 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $89,900 Active 159 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $89,900 Active 158 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $89,900 Active 157 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 156 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 155 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $89,900 Active 154 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 153 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 152 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 151 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $89,900 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 146 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$344/yr (+$29/mo · 152.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $10,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,414
• After-tax cash flow: $8,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,840–$20,520 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates. It offers a spacious layout, new carpet, and a fenced yard with a covered deck. Painting the exterior and maintaining the HVAC system would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain the HVAC system — Improves air quality and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nicholas Elementary Middle Will C. Wood Middle High Hiram W. Johnson High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,660,763 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.