1519 Durand St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$83,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1899 7,200 sqft lot Est $94k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SINGLE FAMILY HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1899

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 8.2% in Saginaw — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $83k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.41%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1933 Delaware St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,539 (-2%)	3mo	$51,000	$33	76
1614 Barnard St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (+7%)	4mo	$160,000	$95	63
2206 N Bond St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+1%)	7mo	$85,000	$54	59
203 N Webster St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+3%)	4mo	$115,000	$72	55
1500 N Charles St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (-11%)	5mo	$47,000	$34	54
1819 Delaware St	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,334 (-15%)	3mo	$93,000	$70	54
2403 Stobbe St	0.62mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,510 (-4%)	6mo	$90,000	$60	53
1923 N Oakley St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-14%)	4mo	$20,000	$15	53
1920 W Genesee St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (-11%)	3mo	$53,500	$38	46
2023 Schaefer St	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,430 (-9%)	4mo	$126,000	$88	46
2319 Delaware Blvd	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,734 (+11%)	2mo	$166,000	$96	45
1710 State St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,358 (-13%)	6mo	$75,000	$55	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $6,764
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $35,414
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $322	+0% $298	+5% $275	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $206	-5% $252	+0% $298	+5% $344	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $320	base $298	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

2. 2026-03-15
   status Pending 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

3. 2026-03-14
   listed $83,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

4. 2026-03-14
   listed $83,000 Active 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

5. 2010-07-31
   historical
6. 2010-07-31
   historical
7. 2009-08-13
   listed $12,850
8. 2009-08-13
   listed $12,850
9. 2005-12-01
   soldstatus $25,060
10. 2005-10-24
    historical
11. 2005-08-26
    listed $26,100
12. 2004-07-24
    historical
13. 2004-07-24
    historical
14. 2004-01-24
    listed $58,500
15. 2004-01-24
    listed $58,500
16. 2001-07-25
    soldstatus $50,490
17. 2001-06-26
    soldstatus $50,490
18. 2001-06-26
    soldstatus $50,490
19. 2001-04-17
    listed $45,900
20. 2001-04-17
    listed $45,900
21. 2001-04-01
    soldstatus $17,000
22. 2001-04-01
    soldstatus $17,000
23. 2000-09-27
    listed $24,900
24. 2000-09-27
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $2,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$585
• After-tax cash flow: $2,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $83,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $83,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-07-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-07-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-08-13 Listed $12,850 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-08-13 Listed $12,850 REALCOMP
• 2005-12-01 Sold (MLS) $25,060 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-10-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-26 Listed $26,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-24 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-07-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-01-24 Listed $58,500 REALCOMP
• 2004-01-24 Listed $58,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $50,490 Public Records
• 2001-06-26 Sold (MLS) $50,490 REALCOMP
• 2001-06-26 Sold (MLS) $50,490 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-04-17 Listed $45,900 REALCOMP
• 2001-04-17 Listed $45,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-04-01 Sold (MLS) $17,000 REALCOMP
• 2001-04-01 Sold (MLS) $17,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-09-27 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-27 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,830 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.