3608 Tiki Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$105,200

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1973 3,409 sqft lot Est $117k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Florida living. (You Own the Land) (No Lot Rent Here) in an established 55+ gated community, this two-bedroom home offers a strong opportunity for seasonal residents or budget-conscious buyers. The property features a functional single-story layout with 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms, no carpet throughout, Two Solid Sheds on the Property and additional flexible spaces including a sewing area, workshop, office area, and a bonus room, making it ideal for hobbies, storage, or working from home. The home includes a durable metal roof, adding long-term value and peace of mind. Per the county, this property is located in a non-flood zone, which may help reduce insurance costs and prov

Key facts

• Gated community
• Single-story layout
• No carpet

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• NO CARPET
• SEWING AREA
• WORKSHOP
• OFFICE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $33; Total annual fees $396
• HOA & community: Association: Tiki Village Office; Association approval required; Monthly condo/association fee $33; Buyer approval required; Golf carts allowed; Street lights; Senior community; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); Attached; Completed condition; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built in 1 story (single level)
• Exterior features: Side porch; Awnings; Exterior lighting; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $727 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $105k implies a 426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,732 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.36%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,360
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3707 Tiki Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	2mo	$80,000	$102	75
2108 Hoyle Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	736 (+2%)	14mo	$120,000	$163	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,644
• Equity at exit: $15,686

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $30,518
• Equity at exit: $9,096

Cash invested: $29,456 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$132 /mo · $1,578/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $105,200

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,300
• Closing costs: $3,156
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.65mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.71mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	24d	1	0.75mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	0.76mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	14d	1	0.76mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.78mi
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	14d	1	0.85mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	4d	1	1.11mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,200 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,200 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,200 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,200 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,200 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,200 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,200 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,200 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,200 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,200 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,200 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,200 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,200 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    price $105,200
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $109,000 Active
16. 1997-05-19
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,578
• − Insurance: −$526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$3,060
• Taxable income: $3,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$733
• After-tax cash flow: $3,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+426.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $105,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.