Siesta Plan · Port St. Lucie, FL 34953

$318,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Private dining room
• Versatile den
• Kitchen pantry

Tags

• VERSATILE DEN
• PRIVATE DINING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• KITCHEN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as new construction plan; List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Located in Port Saint Lucie, FL (SW Bayshore Blvd area)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,864

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 total)
• Interior features: Plan model: Siesta

🏗️ New construction. The $318,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $406,352.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-539 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 758 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,229 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.69%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,352
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
681 SW Addie St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,862 (-0%)	9mo	$409,000	$220	74
709 SW Dorchester St	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+7%)	2mo	$364,000	$182	52
765 SW Hibiscus St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,754 (-6%)	6mo	$412,500	$235	51
644 SW Violet Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-13%)	18mo	$291,000	$180	50
673 SW Granadeer St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,680 (-10%)	13mo	$400,000	$238	45
179 NW Friar St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-10%)	16mo	$339,900	$203	42
411 SW Lucero Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,789 (-4%)	24mo	$390,000	$218	39
658 SW Little Talbot Ct	0.75mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,005 (+8%)	8mo	$480,000	$239	37
206 SW Coconut Key Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (-10%)	14mo	$310,000	$184	36
545 SW Duval Ave	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,126 (+14%)	12mo	$478,500	$225	30
526 NW Avon Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-11%)	23mo	$345,000	$208	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-107,956
• Equity at exit: $60,588

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-168,384
• Equity at exit: $35,134

Cash invested: $113,779 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34953

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 758
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$508 /mo · $6,095/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,555

Max offer price $328,344

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,588
• Closing costs: $12,191
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
641 NW Billiar Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	2453	$2,800	$1.14	23d	1	0.30mi
134 NW Peach St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,050	$1.10	14d	1	0.34mi
530 SW Butler Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,700	$1.36	14d	1	0.47mi
532 SW Buswell Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	1629	$2,750	$1.69	23d	1	0.48mi
632 SW Granadeer St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,495	$1.54	14d	1	0.50mi
507 NW Billiar Ave Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,350	$1.88	21d	1	0.63mi
456 SW Prado Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1376	$2,100	$1.53	14d	1	0.75mi
726 SW Byron St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	2058	$2,600	$1.26	23d	1	0.88mi
365 NW Hibiscus St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1714	$4,000	$2.33	23d	1	0.93mi
458 SW Talquin Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,400	$1.75	14d	1	0.97mi
574 NW Bayshore Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,850	$1.58	23d	1	1.15mi
161 SW Palm Dr #107 Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,999	$1.51	23d	1	1.23mi
137 NW Magnolia Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	2364	$3,200	$1.35	23d	1	1.32mi
702 NW Orchid St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$3,500	$2.33	23d	1	1.39mi
116 Prima Vista Blvd Unit A Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	1314	$2,600	$1.98	23d	1	1.41mi
326 SW Ray Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,350	$1.74	21d	1	1.41mi
326 SW Ray Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,400	$1.78	23d	1	1.41mi
216 NE Mainsail St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,550	$1.68	21d	1	1.44mi
151 SE Castana Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,500	$1.81	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,990 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,990 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,990 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,990 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $318,990 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $527,711 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $527,711 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,762
• − Property taxes: −$6,095
• − Insurance: −$2,032
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − Depreciation: −$11,821
• Taxable loss: −$13,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 86,875
• Household income: $85,667
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 23% Two or more races 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 392.7681
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B